262 
FXUS63 KOAX 061115
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
515 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

Wednesday:

A frontal boundary that lingered over South Dakota most of the 
night, will quickly make its way south through the forecast area 
this morning. Thankfully, the messy wintry precipitation associated 
with ascent near this boundary remained well to our north overnight. 
Despite the mostly clear skies across eastern Nebraska and southwest 
Iowa, warm advection ahead of the front kept temperatures relatively 
mild in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees by 2 AM. 
  
As the previously mentioned boundary surges south this morning, it 
will pull blustery winds and a much colder airmass across the 
region. Highs will vary across the forecast area, ranging from the 
mid 30s over far northeast Nebraska to the lower 50s near the KS/MO 
borders. Expect north winds to gust up to 20-30 mph for much of the 
day and into the overnight hours. Precipitation will try to slowly 
sink south behind the front, but will once again struggle to 
overcome dry air.  The vast majority of any precip that does reach 
the ground will likely be snow, given how quickly cold air will push 
south. However a bit of light rain or sprinkles can't be entirely 
ruled out.

Wednesday Night through Saturday: 

Intense High pressure will build into the region Wednesday night and 
Thursday, bringing the return of dry weather. Temperatures will 
plummet into the teens and 20s by early Thursday morning, and only 
reach the low to mid 30s Thursday afternoon. Thankfully, winds will 
weaken by tomorrow, although even at 5-10mph, it will still be 
enough to make it feel like the single digits and teens through the 
morning. Lows will bottom out in the low 20s Thursday night. 
   
High pressure will shift east of the area Thursday night, bringing 
the southerly low level flow back to the region for Friday. 
Temperatures will moderate into the 40s and possibly low 50s by 
Friday afternoon.  Warm air advection will continue into Saturday, 
as we soar into the upper 50s and low 60s. It should be a beautiful 
day to finish up some yard work, as skies will be mostly sunny much 
of the day. 

Sunday through Wednesday: 

We'll have to enjoy Saturday's brief warmup while we can, as another 
strong cold front will surge through the region Saturday 
night/Sunday morning.  Highs on Sunday may reach the 30s and 40s, 
but by early next week, we'll have dipped into the 20s and 30s. 
Overnight/early morning lows will be in the teens Monday morning, 
and possibly low teens and single digits by Tuesday morning. We 
could see a smattering of light snow Sunday into Monday.  Otherwise 
dry and cold conditions will prevail. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 515 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

A cold front analyzed from Sioux City to Albion as of 5 AM will
progress through the region today with gusty north winds
developing within the post-frontal environment. Moreover, post-
frontal MVFR to IFR stratus clouds -the leading edge of which 
currently extending from Yankton to south of O'Neill- will reach 
Norfolk by about 7 AM and Omaha and Lincoln closer to noon.
Restricted ceilings should lift by late afternoon into early 
evening with a slight decrease in wind speeds. A band of light
snow could materialize across portions of northeast NE this
afternoon. Confidence in that occurrence at Norfolk is currently
too low to include in the forecast.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Mead