385 
FXUS64 KFWD 060605 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1205 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2019

.AVIATION... 
/06Z TAFs/

IFR/LIFR overnight with returning south winds. Improving 
conditions Wednesday. Storms Wednesday night into Thursday.

The Metroplex TAF sites are still situated near the northern bulge
of a slowly retreating frontal boundary. Wind speeds will remain 
light through daybreak, even after the front slips across the 
Metroplex, its passage reintroducing southerly winds. South flow 
will remain intact until a much stronger front arrives on 
Thursday.

LIFR conditions persist as the shallow boundary layer on the cool
side of the front remains nearly saturated. While VFR generally 
prevails in the warm sector, this was primarily a result of the 
unseasonably warm temperatures on Tuesday that enhanced the T/Td 
spread. When southerly flow ensues at our TAF sites, it will 
introduce dew points in the mid 60s, which are higher than the 
current temperatures. This should assure little improvement, with 
the soupy/drizzly surface layer persisting through the morning 
push. Waco is closer to the cleaner air and is more likely to have
lesser (if any) restrictions to visibility during initial morning 
operations.

A surge of warm/moist advection above this yet-to-recover cool 
surface layer will focus a corridor of enhanced elevated
instability, mainly northeast of the Metroplex during the morning
hours. A few showers have already occurred across North Central
Texas within this moist fetch. Additional showers and a few 
embedded thunderstorms will likely disrupt the northeast arrival 
corridor (and perhaps some north departures) through the morning 
push and into mid/late morning. This activity may be within the 
TRACON, and its proximity to the Metroplex TAF sites will be 
further assessed with subsequent TAF issuances.

An upper low over the Desert Southwest will eject a piece of
energy that will result in widespread showers and thunderstorms
northwest of the TRACON Wednesday afternoon. This will likely shut
down the northwest cornerpost during the peak in afternoon
arrivals. While this activity may remain beyond the TRACON through
Wednesday evening, associated outflow boundaries could disrupt 
the wind field within the Metroplex. CAM output has begun 
suggesting that new development along these boundaries may 
encroach on the Metroplex late in the day. However, the main 
convective event still appears to arrive during the early morning 
hours Thursday, which is now captured by the extended portion of 
the DFW TAF.

25

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1154 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2019/
/Through Wednesday/

Patchy drizzle and mist continue across a large swath of our
county warning area this morning, with temperatures struggling to
get out of the 50s or low 60s in many locations. For this reason,
highs were bumped down nearly everywhere. The "heaviest" drizzle
and mist appear to be ongoing near a slow-moving cold front which
is stretched across the south side of the Dallas/Fort Worth
Metroplex at this time. This front will continue a slow sag
southward, but will lift north as a warm front later this evening.

Weak warm air advection in the wake of the retreating warm front
will mean little drop in temperature tonight. In fact, some areas
may actually warm up tonight relative to where they are now.
Overcast skies and patchy drizzle are likely to continue.

As we head into Wednesday, we will remain in the warm air
advection regime, which will result in continued mild
temperatures, overcast skies, and patchy drizzle. Later in the
day, a stronger cold front will begin to drive south across the
Southern Plains. The cold front should remain out of our county
warning area during the period of the short-term forecast
(probably not arriving in our northwest until Thursday morning),
but increasing synoptic-scale ascent ahead of the cold front, and
an approaching upper-level shortwave trough, will result in 
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. The best chances
for showers and thunderstorms will be late in the day Wednesday, 
generally north of a Breckenridge to Denton to Cooper line. While 
weak instability will keep the threat for severe weather low, 
large precipitable water values of more than 1.5 inches will mean 
a potential for locally heavy rainfall, though the heaviest rain 
will likely not begin until Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

37

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 311 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2019/
/Wednesday night through Tuesday/

Showers and some isolated thunderstorms will be ongoing over
N-Central TX Wednesday evening ahead of the approaching cold
front. The front doesn't look to begin making good progress 
southward until during the day on Thursday when a shortwave gives 
it a good push south. This leads to a potential for heavy rain 
north of I-20 late Wednesday night through at least midday 
Thursday. While most of the global models are in decent agreement 
on rainfall totals in the 1-3 inch range across N-central TX, the
HREF is indicating the potential for around 3-5 inches. Still 
fairly confident on location for the higher amounts though, which 
is along and just south of the Red River Valley (and north of 
I-20). After consulting with West Gulf RFC, this would lead to 
some isolated minor river flooding. Bigger concern would likely 
be any higher rainfall rates early Thursday morning, moving into 
more vulnerable flooding locations. Have trended towards the more 
conservative global models for now with rainfall amounts which 
wouldn't lead to any widespread flood concerns.

Rain chances gradually diminish late Thursday evening and we are
then looking at a dry pattern through the weekend with moderate
temperatures gradually warming through Sunday. Another front is
expected to quickly move through the region Sunday night into
early Monday and while we may have a brief window of rain chances
return with this feature, moisture is rather limited. The bigger
impact with the next front will be a stronger push of cold air
which could lead to temperatures close to or below freezing across
much of N-Central TX Tuesday morning. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    61  68  57  62  39 /  30  40  60  90  20 
Waco                62  75  62  67  43 /  20  10  20  80  30 
Paris               61  68  57  58  37 /  20  60  80 100  20 
Denton              58  65  55  61  38 /  30  60  80  90  20 
McKinney            59  67  56  61  38 /  30  50  70  90  20 
Dallas              62  69  58  63  40 /  30  30  50  90  20 
Terrell             63  71  60  64  40 /  10  30  40  90  30 
Corsicana           63  74  60  64  41 /  10  10  20  80  30 
Temple              63  77  62  69  43 /  30   5  10  70  30 
Mineral Wells       56  65  53  60  36 /   5  50  70  90  20 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

25/05