652 
FXUS64 KLZK 052059
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
259 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2019

.Short Term...Tonight thru Thursday... 
Main focus of the short term period is the potential for a heavy 
rainfall event which is shaping up to take place starting tomorrow 
thru Thursday. A very slowly advancing frontal boundary entering the 
northern part of the state will serve as a focal point for low-level 
convergence, while the upper level flow pattern is nearly zonal and 
parallel to the front. 

An upper level low over northern Baja will make its way eastward 
over a split-flow pattern over North America, and in the process 
will eject several impulses eastward across the area. This upper 
level support, combined with the low level convergence, will set up 
a slowly advancing axis of rainfall across the state.

The heaviest rainfall will likely occur late tomorrow night into 
Thursday morning across the northwestern zones, where a few inches 
of rainfall could occur in some areas. 

.Extended Term...Thursday Night thru Tuesday Night...
A long wave trough will be positioned across the upper 
Midwest/Great Lakes region with corresponding strong ridging over 
the Pac NW, allowing for strong WNW H500 flow over the state. 
Thursday night and Friday...The period begins in the wake of a 
fropa, with associated precipitation and cloud cover progressively
clearing across the state early Fri morning as the front clears 
the fcst area. With strong CAA in place, well below-average 
temperatures will be felt across the fcst area with highs around 
the 40s that afternoon and lows around 30 degrees Fri night/Sat 
morning.

Saturday and Sunday...Cool and dry weather will persist through the 
weekend, with high pressure lingering over the state briefly, then 
shifting Ewrd. Additionally, lee sfc low pressure develops over the 
Cntrl Plains, enhancing Srly sfc flow across the CWA and allowing 
for a gradual increase in temperatures and moisture as the weekend 
progresses. 

Sunday night into Monday...Another H500 trough pivots Swrd out of 
Canada, driving yet another strong cold front across the Cntrl 
Plains and entering the state Sun evening. Long range guidance is 
suggesting the possibility of precipitation along the front. 
However, instability will be very minimal ahead of the front, so 
have withheld any thunder from the forecast. Another batch of below-
average air temperatures will accompany the fropa, suggesting the 
possibility of wintry precipitation across parts of Nrn and Nwrn AR 
Sun night through Mon morning, depending on if sufficient moisture 
stays in place despite strong CAA. Will continue to refine the 
forecast as the event draws nearer. 

Through the remainder of the period, high pressure will settle in 
once more over the Cntrl US, with calmer weather and cool conditions 
persisting.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     44  61  51  51 /  20  40  90  90 
Camden AR         53  72  59  62 /   0  20  40  90 
Harrison AR       45  59  43  44 /  30  50 100  90 
Hot Springs AR    52  66  58  57 /   0  30  80  90 
Little Rock   AR  49  68  57  57 /  10  30  80  90 
Monticello AR     50  72  58  63 /   0  10  30  90 
Mount Ida AR      52  65  56  55 /  10  30  80  90 
Mountain Home AR  44  57  44  44 /  30  50 100  90 
Newport AR        43  62  51  51 /   0  20  90 100 
Pine Bluff AR     49  69  56  59 /   0  10  60  90 
Russellville AR   50  63  54  54 /  40  40  90  90 
Searcy AR         45  65  53  54 /   0  30  90  90 
Stuttgart AR      47  68  55  57 /   0  20  70  90 
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...53 / Long Term...232