484 
FXUS64 KMOB 050928
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
328 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2019

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday night/...Upper air maps show 
amplified portion of long-wave upper trof axis aligned from the 
upper Mid- West southward over the MS Valley. At the surface, high
pressure has moved off the northeast US coast with a weak 
inverted pressure trof analyzed from south-central AL to the 
central Gulf.  Upper level westerlies remain in place over the 
central Gulf coast. It's along and east of this feature that 
forecasters see the better gradient and higher values of 
environmental moisture (PWATs > 1.25"). West of the surface 
pressure trof moisture values considerably lower. A cold front was
draped from OH River Valley, southwest across Mid- South and down
across central TX. Radar shows isolated showers mainly over the 
eastern Gulf waters closer to the trof. For today, out of 
consideration of the surface trof's initial placement and radar 
trends, will have slight chance to lower end chance PoPs along and
east of a line from Luverne AL to Navarre Beach FL. Expect any 
precipitation amounts to be light. As the upper trof to our north 
begins to pivot more eastward into the afternoon, lifting up 
across the northeast US by tonight, the surface pressure 
trof/better deeper moisture is shunted east of the area causing a 
lowering trend in PoP into the afternoon. Higher based clouds in 
the westerly flow aloft today look to gradually slide southeast. 
Surface front upstream today makes passage tonight. 

Highs today in the lower to mid 70s are close to seasonal 
normals. Overnight lows coolest in the northwest zones with mid to
upper 40s. East and south, mid to upper 50s. Numbers closer to 60
along the coast. /10

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday Through Thursday night/...A fairly zonal
flow will be present over the southeast states Wednesday into
Wednesday night as an upper trof develops over the Plains, 
phasing with the remnants of an upper low near the 4 Corners area.
The upper trof advances into the eastern states through Thursday
then moves to near the east coast by late Thursday night. A cold
front will have developed by Wednesday which extends from the 
central Plains to near the Great Lakes, then advances to a Texas
to Ohio river valley line by late Wednesday night. The cold front
continues southeastward, and moves through the forecast area
Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.  A surface ridge over 
the southeast states slowly retreats ahead of the approaching 
front and maintains an easterly surface flow over the area until a
southerly flow develops on Thursday. This results in precipitable
water values increasing from initially 0.75-1.0 inch to near 1.5 
inches, about 150% of normal. MLCAPE values will be limited on 
Thursday, due in part to the retreating surface ridge delaying the
return of a southerly surface flow, and look to range from near 
500 J/kg over the coastal counties to 100-300 J/kg further inland
which allow for some isolated embedded storms. 0-1 km Helicity 
values will be low, 100 m2/s2 at best so am not expecting strong
storm development. Will have dry conditions through Wednesday 
night, then good chance pops follow for Thursday as the front 
begins to move into the area. for Thursday night will have likely 
to categorical pops as the front moves through the remainder of 
the area. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be mostly in the 
mid 70s, with a few locations in the lower 70s and upper 70s. Lows
Wednesday night range from the lower to mid 50s well inland to 
the lower 60s near the coast. Lows Thursday night range from the 
mid to upper 40s well inland to the upper 50s at the coast. A low 
risk of rip currents on Wednesday will be followed by a moderate 
risk on Thursday. /29

.LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...A large and broad upper trof
pattern will be present over the eastern states on Friday and is 
then followed by a larger upper trof evolving over the central and
eastern states during the remainder of the period. A dome of cool
high pressure builds into the eastern states on Friday in the wake
of the cold front passage Thursday/Thursday night.  Will have 
slight chance to chance pops Friday morning for light rain 
lingering in the wake of the frontal passage with otherwise dry 
conditions. Another cold front advances from the Plains then moves
through the forecast area Sunday night. No precipitation is
expected with this next front due to a lack of any appreciable
return flow ahead of the front. /29

&&

.MARINE...The passage of a reinforcing cold front and a building 
surface high over the eastern US tonight brings a gradual increase 
in northeast flow. Winds turn more southeasterly by Thursday ahead 
of next cold front that will be approaching the Lower MS River 
valley. Chances of showers increase through the day Thursday, 
becoming likely by Thursday night. A few storms will bring brief 
strong wind gusts and reduced visibility in moderate to heavier 
downpours. Frontal passage late Thursday brings wind-shift and 
strengthening post-frontal offshore flow in its wake thru the day
that may require the issuance of Small Craft Advisories. Offshore
flow persists into Saturday/Sunday but weaker. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  53  76  59  77  53  62  40 /   0   0   0   0  50  70  20  10 
Pensacola   77  60  77  64  77  59  65  46 /  10  10   0  10  50  70  30  10 
Destin      76  63  76  65  76  61  67  48 /  30  10  10  10  40  70  40  10 
Evergreen   76  53  76  58  76  54  61  41 /  10   0   0   0  40  70  20  10 
Waynesboro  71  47  71  53  74  47  54  34 /   0   0   0   0  50  80  10   0 
Camden      73  50  74  56  73  49  57  38 /  10   0   0   0  40  80  10   0 
Crestview   76  58  77  60  78  57  65  43 /  20  10  10   0  40  70  40  10 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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