National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDIND
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDIND
Product Timestamp: 2019-11-04 09:07 UTC
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831 FXUS63 KIND 040907 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 407 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2019 .UPDATE... The LONG TERM and AVIATION Sections have been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 316 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2019 An upper wave and weak cold front could a few light rain showers to central Indiana tonight and another system could bring rain and snow showers to the area Wednesday night through Thursday night. Otherwise, high pressure will provide dry weather and below normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/... Issued at 316 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2019 Models in agreement that an upper wave and weak cold front combined with a moist atmosphere could spark a few rain showers tonight per the blend. At the very least, satellite trends and model rh progs support plenty of cloud cover. This will help keep temperatures from climbing too much this afternoon or falling too much tonight. This along with a similar low level thermal pattern to yesterday supports similar afternoon highs in the mid 50s and lows in the 30s. && .SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Wednesday night/... Issued at 316 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2019 Models in good agreement on dry weather and little cloud through Wednesday as surface high pressure settles in. However, expect increased cloud cover by late Wednesday with rain and snow showers possible Wednesday night as another system approaches. Temperatures will be well below normal Tuesday in the wake of the cold front but return to closer to normal by Wednesday per expected cloud cover and low level pattern. Blend highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s Tuesday and mid and upper 50s Wednesday look reasonable. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday Night/... Issued at 338 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2019 Models continue to trend toward precipitation early and late in the forecast period. First, rain and snow showers will impact the northern portions of central Indiana Thursday while the southern portions see mainly rain through the day. As temperatures plummet into the 20s on Thursday night though, that snow will work its way into the southern counties as well before Fri 06Z. No accumulations are expected though as moisture decreases by that point, ending completely after Fri 06Z. At that point, high pressure will strengthen over the region, resulting in dry conditions through Sunday. After that, the next chance for rain and snow showers won't come until Sunday night. Meanwhile, temperatures through the period will remain 10 to 20 degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 04/09Z TAF Update/... Issued at 338 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2019 Update... No changes. Previous Discussion... VFR conditions are expected through the period. Mid and high clouds will rule across the area through the overnight. Stronger winds not far off the surface may get close to low level wind shear, but at the moment odds favor leaving it out. Clouds will lower into the 4000-6000FT range during the day Monday. Models are becoming more consistent in bringing in some patchy light rain late Monday afternoon, so may have to add that with later forecasts. Winds may gust to around 20kt Monday. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MK NEAR TERM...MK SHORT TERM...MK LONG TERM....TDUD AVIATION...50/TDUD