209 
FXUS65 KBOU 031145
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
445 AM MST Sun Nov 3 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 445 AM MST Sun Nov 3 2019

Mid level clouds will continue to stream across the northern
border areas today, with more clouds just downstream of the
mountains. This zone should gradually sag south, bringing mostly
cloudy skies to Denver late today or this evening. Dry northwest
winds above the boundary layer which will remain shallow due to
the melting snow across much of the area. It will be warmer with a
bit of northwest wind mixing to the surface over the northeast
corner of Colorado again. Elsewhere, it should just be a few
degrees warmer than yesterday. Mountain wave is amplifying a bit again
at this hour, producing 40-55 mph wind gusts above about 8500 feet
in areas north of I-70. It looks like conditions will be most 
favorable for this early in the morning, but hard to tell as 
there's not really a well established inversion but perhaps some 
smaller scale features in the flow creating pockets of stability 
to trap the wave. There's little change to the flow aloft through
tonight so the higher elevations of the Front Range will stay
fairly windy with occasional intrusions down to 8-9 thousand feet.

It doesn't really look like a well defined front tonight, mainly
because we'll already have a mixed up surface temperature pattern
with a pocket of cold air just east of the mountains. This will
tend to slosh back against the mountains overnight though as
there's some enhancement of the easterly gradient at low levels.
At this point, it looks like we won't saturate at the surface
given some warming today and the overnight cloud cover. However
with the additional moisture input from the melting, some patchy
fog or low clouds are not out of the question early Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 445 AM MST Sun Nov 3 2019

On Monday, a moderate northwesterly flow aloft will be over the
forecast area, with an embedded short wave clipping the northeast
corner in the morning. Do not anticipate more an a few brief
showers in that area mainly in the morning with slightly cooler
afternoon temperatures. Dry and warmer on Tuesday, with the storm
track lifting to the north and east of CO, and a weaker
northwesterly flow shifting over the state. Forecast max
temperatures on Tuesday will be closer to normal with highs in the
mid 50s. Another short wave is expected to brush across northeast
Colorado late Wednesday. Main impact from this system will again
be cooler temperatures for the middle of the week with high 
temperatures dropping back into the mid 40s on Wednesday and 
Thursday. A ridge of high pressure will build into CO from the 
west on Friday resulting in max temperatures closer to normal for 
Friday and Saturday. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 445 AM MST Sun Nov 3 2019

VFR through tonight, though there is a slight chance of IFR 
conditions after 09z Monday. Light and variable winds are
expected. Prevailing direction at KDEN/KAPA should be southerly
this morning, then tending northerly by 21z, and southerly again
by 03z. Winds at KBJC will also have some variability, but
westerly directions should prevail.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Gimmestad