National Weather Service Raw Text Product

075 
FXUS62 KGSP 030238
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1038 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool high pressure over the area has brought the coldest 
temperatures of the season so far. A freeze is expected across the 
mountains the next couple of nights, with frost for the Piedmont. 
Cool and dry conditions will persist until the next significant cold 
front late in the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 1035 PM EDT Saturday: The cold front has pushed through the 
area with an 1028 mb high located across Arklatex now building into 
the region from the west. The latest guidance has come in about a 
degree cooler for tonight's lows, which makes sense as dewpoints are 
a bit lower and winds are dropping off a bit quicker than 
anticipated. It seems the overnight lows and associated frost 
products are appropriate given the latest trends.  

With broad upper troughing aloft, low pressure system well north of 
the OH Valley will continue to push eastward and drive a cold front 
through the area later this afternoon - latest sfc analysis depicts 
this feature back to the west across the TN Valley. Moisture is 
essentially non-existent with this boundary, thus the only change on 
tap will be a wind shift, with CAA allowing for another push of cold 
air into the area. Do expect winds to increase, mainly across the 
mountains (gusts nearing 20 mph at the higher elevations) with the 
tightened pressure gradient - tapering off into Sunday. 

Per latest guidance, expect temperatures across the NC and GA 
mountains to fall below freezing for the overnight/Sunday morning 
hours. However, given that the growing season has ended for these 
areas, no hazard products will be issued. The growing season has 
also ended for some counties across the northern foothills as of 
this morning - see the latest Public Information Statement for more 
information. For those counties that are still active for the 
Frost/Freeze Program, with overnight low temperatures in the low to 
mid 30s expected, a Frost Advisory has been issued, and will go into 
effect tonight. Though will note, confidence is slightly lowered in 
regards to coverage given slightly elevated winds behind the exiting 
front. Please see the latest hazard for more information. Mountain 
valley fog will be possible overnight as well, with cloud 
development along the TN border expected. 

On Sunday, dry and quiet conditions will prevail as sfc high 
pressure continues to build in behind the exiting cold front. 
Despite expect sunshine, with CAA, max temperatures will once again 
fall nearly 10 degrees below normal, with overnight lows into early 
Monday morning a few degrees warmer than expected tonight/Sunday 
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Sat: High pressure will be in place across the region 
Sunday night and then will gradually move east to a position off the 
Mid-Atlantic coast Monday night and Tuesday. A dry cold front ahead 
of the next high pressure area will be approaching the area from the 
northwest Tuesday afternoon. 

The most impactful weather in the short term period will be the
potential for frost/freeze again Monday morning. Temps will moderate
gradually between then and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sat: Surface high pressure will move just north of the 
area on Tuesday night and Wednesday before moving off the coast on 
Wednesday night. The next cold front will approach from the 
northwest on Thursday and move through the area on Thursday night. 
This system will looks to feature a higher chance of precipitation 
and then colder air for the end of the week. 

Temperatures will be seasonable most of the week trending below 
normal toward the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR and light winds wind prevail thru the 
period. Low end gusts are likely at Asheville and possible at KGSP, 
KGMU, and KHKY through 15Z. Can't rule out patchy fog in wind 
sheltered locations, especially across mountain valleys such as the 
Little Tennessee. Can't rule out brief low MVFR to IFR cigs at KAVL 
between 06Z and 14Z.

Outlook: High pressure will support prevailing VFR conds and light 
winds into early next week. Early morning mountain valley fog will 
be possible.

Confidence Table...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z 
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Sunday for GAZ018-026-028-
     029.
NC...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Sunday for NCZ036-056-
     068>072-082.
SC...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Sunday for SCZ004>014-019.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...Munroe/SGL
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...Munroe