182 
FXUS64 KFWD 280015
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
715 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2019


.UPDATE...
Have amended the overnight forecast to include a mention of 
patchy fog. Visibility reductions are possible generally east of 
I-35 beginning prior to daybreak Monday morning. 

A slow-moving cold front exists across the northwestern CWA, and 
shallow moisture will rapidly increase ahead of this boundary 
overnight. Surface dewpoints in the mid and upper 50s will surge 
into portions of East Texas, meeting temperatures of similar 
values already in place. Saturation of the lowest few hundred feet
should occur leading to areas of fog, perhaps some dense, mainly 
east of the I-35 corridor. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast is 
on track, and have only made minor adjustments for recent 
observational trends.

-Stalley

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 640 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2019/
/00z TAFs/

While VFR currently prevails across the region, flying conditions
will begin deteriorating by Monday morning. A stalling cold front
can be seen on regional radar imagery this evening, located 
northwest of the DFW Metroplex as of 2330z. Ahead of this 
boundary, shallow moisture will surge northward overnight, 
resulting in the development of ragged low stratus and some 
patchy fog. This moisture will largely be confined to the lowest 
~800 ft, so any cigs would be IFR/LIFR. Visby reductions will be 
more likely farther east of the Metroplex where surface 
temperatures will be cooler and dewpoints higher. Any stratus will
likely bisect the Metroplex around daybreak, and will only 
include Tempo mentions at the eastern Metroplex airports (DFW, 
DAL, GKY) through this time. These obstructions would likely be 
short-lived, and improve quickly through the morning hours.

Later Monday morning, some VFR cigs should overspread much of the
area as moisture continues to increase ahead of the front. The
slow-moving frontal zone will continue to meander southeastward 
during the day, resulting in a very gradual wind shift from south
to west and eventually northwest following its passage. At this
time, passage through the Metroplex is expected around 21-22z, 
although this timing remains uncertain and could speed up by a few
hours in subsequent forecasts. Post-frontal MVFR cigs are likely,
and as ascent occurs atop the frontal inversion, some light 
precipitation should begin as early as Monday evening. Will 
introduce some light rain and reduced visibilities in the extended
DFW TAF, which will need to be included at other sites as this 
comes within the TAF window. Poor flying conditions will continue 
through Monday night and into Tuesday with persistent light
rainfall and MVFR/IFR conditions.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 309 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2019/
/Monday Night through Sunday/

The first of a couple of strong cold fronts will finally get a
good southward push Monday night through the area with
strengthening northerly winds and colder air filtering into the
region. As the shallow airmass pushes southward, isentropic ascent
will gradually increase late Monday night and really get cranking
during the day Tuesday. This should mean that we'll see areas of
light rain start to develop as early as Monday night atop the
colder frontal slope, and will really increase in coverage later
in the day on Tuesday as deeper moisture spreads into the area
from the Gulf. We'll be within a region of modest deep layer
forcing for ascent Tuesday night through Wednesday night as a
large upper trough over the western U.S. spreads into the Plains.
A second, stronger front will blast through the region during the
day on Wednesday keeping high temperatures in the upper 40s and
lower 50s for a good portion of the day. It's still a little
unclear whether or not we'll see a warm sector develop during the
day Wednesday ahead of the main cold front, but right now, even if
we do, it would only be for a brief period in our southeast
counties before the front comes through. We'll keep an eye on this
potential. The main threat during the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe
will be widespread moderate rainfall with embedded thunderstorms.
Areal rainfall amounts of 1.5 to 2.5 inches appear likely which
could cause some minor flooding issues in low areas that received
modest rainfall over the last several days.

Rain should end quickly late Wednesday night into Thursday morning
from northwest to southeast. Drier air will push in through the
day Thursday as the upper trough pulls away from the Plains.
Halloween night should be clear for trick-or-treaters, although 
it will be cold with temperatures in the mid 40s during the
evening hours and a north wind around 10 mph. Wind chills will
fall into the upper 30s by the time the kiddos wrap up their candy
collection.

The end of the week will be dry although it will be cool. Highs
will be in the mid/upper 50s on Thursday warming into the 60s for
Friday and Saturday.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    54  69  49  56  50 /   0   5  30  50  80 
Waco                54  74  54  63  54 /   0   5  20  50  60 
Paris               54  71  49  61  55 /   0   5  20  40  80 
Denton              48  66  46  52  48 /   0   5  30  50  80 
McKinney            53  70  48  55  50 /   0   5  30  50  80 
Dallas              56  71  49  56  52 /   0   5  20  50  80 
Terrell             55  74  52  62  56 /   0   5  20  50  70 
Corsicana           57  75  55  64  57 /   0   5  10  50  60 
Temple              54  76  56  63  56 /   0   5  10  50  60 
Mineral Wells       46  63  46  49  45 /   0   5  30  40  80 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

26/25