997 
FXUS64 KFWD 262045
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
345 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019

.LONG TERM...
/Sunday Night through Saturday/

Sunday will be the last really nice day for several days as we 
head into an unsettled pattern through the middle of the upcoming 
week. By Sunday night an upper trough will continue to amplify
over the western U.S. with a strong shortwave expected to eject
eastward across the 4-corners by early Monday morning. As it does,
a cold front will slide south through the Plains. Moisture 
recovery from our current dry airmass will take a while, and 
Monday should be mostly dry although we'll finally see a surge of 
low level moisture late in the day. This should result in a rapid 
intrusion of stratus by afternoon. The higher resolution NAM
guidance shows the front drifting into our northwest counties
during the early morning and maintains northerly winds across 
most of the region through the afternoon. This is supported by the
TTU WRF, although some mixing of the leading edge of colder air is
likely. This should result in pretty significant temperature
gradient across the region on Monday afternoon. We'll have highs
in the low 60s across the northwest and upper 70s in our
southeast.

Strong isentropic ascent atop this cooler airmass will continue
Monday night and we should see a surge of better moisture into the
region as well during this time. Widespread light rain or drizzle
may develop late Monday night, but areas of rain and isolated
thunderstorms will become more likely during the day Tuesday. Rain
chances will be highest Tuesday night into Wednesday as the main
upper trough continues to dig into the Plains. Strong forcing for
ascent will persist well into Wednesday night. Given the abundant
moisture and strong forcing, widespread rainfall is expected with
most of the region likely to pick up 1 to 3 inches of rain. With
recent moderate rains the last few days, this additional rainfall
could start to cause some minor flooding issues. Otherwise, the
threat for thunderstorms appears to be conditional through the
period. There will be some elevated instability Tuesday and
Wednesday and we'll continue to advertise rain with isolated
thunderstorms. It doesn't look like we will ever get into a well
established warm sector ahead of the strong forcing, so severe
weather is not expected at this time.

A stronger cold front will push through Wednesday night with the
main trough moving through the Plains. This will eventually usher
in some drier air and bring the rain chances to an end during the
day on Thursday. Trick or treating on Halloween should be rain
free, although it will be cold with a brisk north wind and
temperatures in the 40s during the evening. Bundle the littles up
in warm fuzzy costumes! Dry, but cool weather will continue into
next weekend.

Dunn

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019/
/This Afternoon through Sunday/

Visible satellite imagery shows low clouds rapidly eroding from
west to east with sunny skies prevailing across most of the
region. Strong height rises continue to spread across North Texas
and much drier surface to 500 mb air is filtering in from the
northwest. The remainder of the day should be sunny with
temperatures climbing well into the 60s for highs.

The upper pattern will remain progressive with another deep trough
digging into the western U.S. later tonight. Surface pressure
falls through the Plains will encourage low level winds to become
more southerly later tonight. We will still remain mostly clear,
but turbulent mixing in the boundary layer will likely inhibit
optimal radiational cooling. Nonetheless, it will still be cool
tonight with lows in the mid to upper 40s. There could be some
patchy fog mainly east of I-35 where low level moisture is a
little better and winds may be a little lighter.

Sunday should be another nice day with with strengthening
southerly flow above the surface and full sun allowing
temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees
areawide.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019/
/18Z TAFS/

VFR will prevail through the period with northwest winds gradually
diminishing this afternoon. Southerly winds will return tonight
although will generally be less than 10 kt. South winds will
prevail on Sunday with cloud free skies. There is a low potential
for some fog mainly east of the major airports late tonight 
through early Sunday morning.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    49  78  52  71  50 /   0   0   0   0  30 
Waco                46  78  52  75  53 /   0   0   0   0  20 
Paris               46  74  49  71  47 /   0   0   0   5  30 
Denton              47  77  50  68  47 /   0   0   0   0  40 
McKinney            47  76  50  70  48 /   0   0   0   0  40 
Dallas              50  78  53  71  51 /   0   0   0   0  30 
Terrell             47  76  51  73  50 /   0   0   0   0  30 
Corsicana           47  77  52  75  53 /   0   0   0   0  20 
Temple              46  77  52  76  55 /   0   0   0   0  20 
Mineral Wells       44  80  47  67  45 /   0   0   0   0  30 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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