295 
FXUS62 KMLB 220812
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
412 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Current...Stout mid level ridge continues to sit across central/SOFL 
and the Bahamas early this morning. Low level flow continues to veer 
on the backside of the slowly retreating ATLC surface ridge. KMLB 
88D shows isolated small showers developing over land between Lake O 
and the Treasure Coast south of Vero Beach. A more pronounced line 
of convection has formed well offshore. along a narrow convergence 
band which has st up along the periphery of the ridge. Well to the 
NW, a weakening band of pre-frontal convection is noted from the FL 
Big Bend region NNE across the eastern panhandle. Light, but sultry 
flow is keeping current temps in the U70s areawide.

Today-tonight...The base of a large short wave trough which moved 
across the eastern CONUS today-tonight will temporarily flatten the 
NW flank of the ridge. This, in turn will allow a weak cool front to 
sag into north Florida around sunset, and then into central Florida 
near or a little north of Lake O by sunrise Wed. Global/mesoscale is 
not all that keen on precip prospects for today, showing ~20 percent 
for all but the SE CWA (30), where some sea/lake breeze convergence 
may enhance chances there a bit. 

Max temps in the U80s-L90s. Modified CAA will reach the northern CWA 
late night, allowing mins to drop into the from L-M60s across north 
Lake/NW Volusia Cos. U60s-L70s to the south, save for M70s along the 
immediate Treasure Coast.

Wed-Fri...Weak cool front shifts south of Lake Okeechobee and stalls 
across south Florida into Wednesday. Drier air settles across the 
north keeping rain chances out of the forecast from Osceola and 
Brevard counties northward. However, lingering moisture near the 
boundary and increasing low level NE onshore flow from strong ridge 
across the southeast U.S. will continue to generate isolated to 
scattered showers that will move onshore and inland across the 
Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County. It will be cooler behind the 
front with highs in the upper 70s north of Orlando, with low to mid 
80s expected to the south. Into Wednesday night, min temps should 
fall into the mid to upper 60s near to northwest of I-4, with 
onshore flow keeping lows in the low to mid 70s farther south and 
along the coast. 

Center of high pressure across the southeast states moves toward the 
Mid-Atlantic and offshore into late week, with flow veering to the 
east and allowing moisture to build back across the region, 
increasing rain chances Thu-Fri up to 40-50 percent. This onshore 
flow will also erode any of the cooler air across the north, with 
highs in the low-mid 80s across east central Florida. Overnight lows 
will remain mild in the low to mid 70s. 

Sat-Mon...Model solutions continue to diverge into the weekend and 
early next week. The GFS still showing a deeper trough that moves 
into the eastern U.S. and weakens mid level ridge across the area. 
This eventually drags another front toward the state, stalling it to 
the northwest as broad low pressure develops along the boundary over 
the Gulf and lifts northward. The ECMWF on the other hand continues 
to show closed low breaking off around the Southern Rockies/Southern 
Plains, shifting trough farther north as it shifts east and allowing 
mid-level ridge to remain in place. Either way it will remain warm 
through the period with highs in the mid to upper 80s, and overnight 
lows remaining mild in the low to mid 70s. Rain chances remain more 
uncertain, with the ECMWF slightly drier with ridge in place, but 
for now will maintain chance PoPs around 40-50 percent in the 
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Precip chances not high enough to introduce any 
TEMPO groups at this time.

&&

.MARINE...

Today-tonight...SW pre-frontal flow around 10KT will shift 
to north around 15-17KT immediately behind the cool front. Seas 2-
3FT today will build as high as 4 to possibly 5FT well offshore to 
the north of Cape Canaveral late tonight.

Wed-Sat...Poor boating conditions into Wed-Wed night expected as 
N/NE wind surge up to 15-20 knots builds down across the waters 
behind weak cool front, building seas to 4-6 feet. Flow quickly 
veers more onshore as strong ridge builds in across the southeast 
U.S., with winds decreasing to around 10-15 knots into late 
week/early weekend and seas falling slightly to around 3-5 feet.  


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  68  77  69 /  20  20   0  20 
MCO  89  69  81  69 /  20  10  10  10 
MLB  91  74  82  73 /  20  30  10  20 
VRB  92  74  83  75 /  20  30  30  30 
LEE  89  66  80  67 /  20  10   0  10 
SFB  90  67  79  69 /  20  20  10  10 
ORL  89  68  80  69 /  20  10  10  10 
FPR  92  75  84  75 /  30  30  30  30 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Cristaldi
LONG TERM....Weitlich