288 
FXUS63 KFSD 182314
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
614 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

The cold front is presently creeping into the far western portions 
of our CWA this afternoon. This boundary will continue to push to 
the east overnight, and with moisture remaining mostly confined to 
the mid and upper levels, not expecting much more than sprinkles, if 
anything, during the overnight hours. There is a possibility of 
slightly deeper moisture east of Interstate 29, and could see an 
isolated shower over parts of northwestern IA after 06Z. Will begin 
to have cold air advection behind the front, and with decreasing 
clouds temperatures will fall into the lower 40s over all but our far 
east - with mid to upper 40s over the eastern counties of our CWA.

In spite of the cold frontal passage, Saturday looks to be a decent 
day with a mixy westerly flow and highs back into the lower to mid 
60s. Winds overall will be relatively light, though areas from east 
central SD to the IA Great Lakes could be a little breezy with 
afternoon gusts of 15 to 20 kts.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

A system is still on track to affect the area on Sunday as an upper 
level trough deepens over the central CONUS. There are still some 
slight model differences in the handling of the system. Even so, the 
general theme is the same - with rain developing over the western 
portions of our area by Sunday afternoon in response to increasing 
theta e advection on a strengthening low level jet, then 
overspreading the area on Sunday night into Monday as the upper 
level trough swings through the region and the surface low deepens 
in our vicinity. With an increasing gradient, windy conditions will 
develop, especially by Monday. While temperatures will remain 
relatively mild on Sunday - around 60, cooler air will feed into the 
are by Monday with readings only in the 40s to lower 50s. Wrap 
around precipitation now looks to linger into later on Monday night, 
and as thermal profiles continue to cool, cannot rule out a brief 
mix or changeover to snow over portions of southwestern MN. As far 
as rainfall amounts for Sunday through Monday - looking at highest 
amounts north of Interstate 90, with 0.75" plus along the Highway 14 
corridor.

With the departure of that system, Tuesday and Wednesday of next 
week will have below normal temperatures and primarily dry 
conditions. Still keeping our eyes on the end of the week system, 
though solutions continue to be quite varied, with GFS driving the 
energy much farther to the south - with little impact to our area. 
The ECMWF persists in bringing more precipitation to our area, 
though offers a slightly warmer solution than previous runs - 
remaining mostly rain, with some possible mix/changover north of 
Interstate 90 late in the day, before ending in the evening. Will 
continue to be something to keep an eye on as models trend toward 
better consensus.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Front continues to move from west to east across the region this
evening and overnight, switching winds to more northwesterly
direction behind it. Additionally, a band of sprinkles or light
rain may also briefly impact the TAF sites with KSUX most likely
to see precip reach the ground. VFR conditions are expected thru
the day Saturday. 

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Kalin