National Weather Service Raw Text Product

082 
FXUS63 KAPX 171906
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
306 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: minimal.

Ridge of high pressure is gradually advancing across IL/WI/western 
upper MI. Chilly and relatively moist low-level airmass is present 
along and east of the ridge. When combined with diurnal heating and 
lake contributions, this is resulting in plenty of cu/stratocu.  
Cloud/temp trends are the main concerns tonight. 

Precip had been trending downward in nw lower MI, but another 
batch of showers is making inroads into Charlevoix/Antrim Cos and
environs. In addition, ERY has been reporting rain at times, 
implying some lingering showers possible in western Chip/Mack Cos.
And just this past hour, ANJ has reported a shower too. All of
this activity will diminish with a further decrease in inversion 
heights, but may not entirely disappear until diurnal heating 
ceases by early evening.

Clouds are still layered over portions of nw lower MI, but otherwise 
are clearly trending cellular over northern MI and especially points 
north. This cu field will tend to erode this evening. Sky cover 
guidance has trended less cloudy tonight, and that makes sense. A 
good portion of the area (northern lower MI in particular) will 
still be mostly cloudy at sunset. However, clouds will erode from 
that point, with partly cloudy/mostly clear conditions for 
midnight and after.

With less in the way of clouds, guidance temps have not surprisingly 
gone lower for tonight. Winds will diminish quickly this evening as 
the ridge approaches. The main obstacle for a very cold night 
(outside of clouds) is that dew points are running fairly high 
thanks to limited mixing. Have lowered min temps tonight 1-2f 
compared to 12Z consensus guidance. This results in a lot of 
mid/upper 20s in eastern upper, n central and ne lower MI. Readings 
will be around 30 into the low/mid 30s in nw lower MI. And, though 
moisture will be deposited as frost as temps approach dew points 
tonight, have also added a touch of fog to the overnight. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal. 

Pattern/Synopsis: Heights continue to rise Friday with shortwave 
ridging building into the Great Lakes region. This ridging will be 
sandwiched between a strong cut off low in the northeast, and 
general troughing across the Rockies. A series of waves will rotate 
around the western troughing; one with minor impacts for Saturday 
evening, and the other digging in and more impactful early next 
week. Temperatures through the weekend will be above normal with 
east coast ridging trying to hold strong over the Great Lakes.  

Details/Forecast: Friday morning the surface ridge axis will be 
right overhead, leading to a chilly morning. We quickly warm up 
given mostly sunny skies under general subsidence and dry low/mid 
levels. Overall Friday will be mild with a lack of real sensible 
weather as the high slowly moves through the Ohio Valley. In the 
meantime an elongated area of low pressure pushes through the 
Central Plains as its parent shortwave treks along the US-Canadian 
border. As the associated front approaches Michigan southerly return 
flow ramps up late Friday night into Saturday with the tightening 
gradient. A moisture-starved warm front crosses us Saturday, with 
mainly an increase in midlevel cloud cover through the day, as 
forecast soundings saturate top-down. The narrow corridor of better 
moisture doesn't come into play until late Saturday afternoon and 
into the evening, along with the passage of the weakening cold 
front. Precip may be heavy at times thanks to some decent forcing 
crossing our area, and PWATs nearing an inch. However, profiles 
quickly dry out again closer to sunrise. Through Saturday 
night/early Sunday our next system already takes shape in the 
central High Plains. Over in our neck of the woods Sunday remains 
tranquil thanks to transient upper level ridging and a weak surface 
high behind the cold front.

Temperatures will range anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees above normal 
through the weekend and into Monday, as 850mb temps range from 4 to 
9 deg C, and the Canadian cold pool remains held in check by 
stubborn eastern seaboard ridging. 

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Potential for windy/rainy period 
Monday into Tuesday.   

Conditions change Sunday night as the approaching surface low starts 
to ramp up some gusty southeasterly winds. Guidance is still 
drastically spread regarding the system strength by Monday morning, 
but placement within the upper Mississippi Valley has decent 
agreement. As the upper level system takes on a negative tilt some 
good dynamic support overspreads the area, but the best conditions 
for lift will be along and north of Lake Superior. The surface low 
deepens through Tuesday across central Ontario, keeping decent rain 
and wind chances going Monday through Tuesday. The best chance of 
heavier rain comes Monday night, with much above normal moisture and 
decent forcing along the cold front. Then a transition to more lake 
effect Tuesday into Wednesday as colder air entrenches across the 
upper Great Lakes. Further shower chances exist Wednesday/Thursday 
due to another weak system progged to move up the mid-Mississippi 
Valley. We transition back to below normal temperatures as the cold 
pool sinks south behind Monday/Tuesday's strong system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Periods of MVFR cigs today and tonight.

Strong low pressure continues to move away from northern MI, while
a ridge of high pressure advances across WI. That ridge will be
overhead by Friday morning, helping us continue a trend toward
quieter wx. We are still seeing a lake-induced cloud deck that is
MVFR at times. Cigs will tend to gradually increase into this
evening, but then lower again tonight. That will give an
occasional risk for MVFR cigs thru tonight. ALso not impossible
for a touch of shallow ground fog late tonight.

Gusty nw to n winds this afternoon will go light/variable tonight.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Breezy nw-n winds continue in the wake of strong low pressure well
to our east, and ahead of high pressure advancing slowly from WI.
Winds/waves will diminish rapidly later today as the high moves 
in. Southerly winds will start to ramp up Friday, especially on 
Lake MI, in the wake of the high. Some advisories could be needed
again, especially by late Friday into Fri night.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening for LHZ346>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ