670 
FXUS64 KBMX 161632
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1132 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

.UPDATE...
Morning Update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 1127 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019/
Through Today.

A cold front continues to push southward this morning, with drier
air filtering into northern areas. The front is currently near ANB
to TCL, with dewpoints now in the 50s at BHM. Behind the front, 
skies will clear, but warming will be offset by cool advection, 
keeping temperatures in the 60s to around 70 degrees this 
afternoon. South of the front, isolated showers remain possible, 
ending by mid afternoon across the southeast. Cloud cover will be 
slower to clear, and have adjusted temperatures down across the 
southeast, keeping afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s.

14


Previous short-term discussion:
/Updated at 0400 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019/
Tonight.

Tonight temperatures will drop off substantial with low to mid 
40s expected. A few locally cooler areas in the north will likely 
drop into the upper 30s. Did add in river fog into the forecast as
water temperatures will not drop near as low as surface 
temperatures, so there will be locally dense areas of fog likely 
right at rivers and nears lakes. This area will be too small to 
mention in the HWO at this time but be prepared while driving 
Thursday morning. 

16

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0400 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019/

Thursday and Friday.

For the remainder of the work week, a quiet and relatively mild 
Thu/Fri is set for Central Alabama as stable conditions remain 
across much of the region. Northerly flow will persist through 
Thursday, eventually veering more easterly as high pressure 
centered to our north progresses toward the East Coast. The 
evolving pattern will support an amplifying upper-level ridge 
across the eastern CONUS as a broad trough develops out west. 
This, and mostly sunny skies, will help raise temperatures back 
into the mid 70s Friday afternoon. Widespread lows in the 40s 
Thursday night increase to the upper 40s/mid 50s for Friday night.
Meanwhile, eyes will be on a system that may potentially develop 
in the Gulf of Mexico. This will have forecast implications for 
the latter portion of the long-term period.

Saturday through Tuesday.

Weekend weather conditions, and particulary into early next week, 
begin to become more complex and unsettled as we keep an eye on two 
disturbances to bring rain chances to Central Alabama. The first 
opportunity will be associated with a potentially organizing 
tropical/sub-tropical system forecast to move northward from the Bay 
of Campeche into the northwestern/northern Gulf during the weekend. 
This system will certainly bring a broad area of tropical moisture 
as it nears the Gulf Coast, though will be in competition with an 
antecedent dry, continental airmass and the departing upper-level 
ridge on Saturday. Regardless, rain chances increase during this 
time though have kept PoPs truncated to ~50% or less as the 
trajectory, strength, and overall organization of the disturbance 
will impact many weather variables, including rainfall. Currently 
the NHC has given the system a 40% chance of tropical/sub-tropical 
cyclone formation through the weekend. 

Upstream and inland, a potent upper-level trough is forecast to dig 
southeastward across the Intermountain West with lee cyclogenesis 
across the High Plains by Sunday morning. As this strengthening & 
dynamic wave continues eastward, a trailing frontal boundary is 
expected to approach the Mississippi River Valley Mon/Tue with a 
broad area of low-level warm/moist advection and southwesterly flow 
aloft over the Southeast. Assuming the departure of the Gulf system 
by Monday, this will incur another period of rain/thunderstorm 
chances across the Deep South. Though specific details are still 
lacking as we are several days out, the disturbance warrants some
attention and will be watched in the coming days.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

Generally IFR ceilings north and MVFR ceilings south this morning
as the cold front now begins to push through the area. Looks like
the front will be right on top of BHM at 12Z and then will slide
south and east this morning.Additional rain coverage will develop
generally just east of ANB/ASN this morning and south of EET/TCL,
so only MGM and TOI may see additional rain. Conditions will
improve by the afternoon with winds increasing from the north. A
few gusts of up to 20 kts are possible. By 00Z, skies should be
clearing and winds will calm. There could be some river fog but
did not include at any site at this time. 

16


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Areas of light rain are still impacting Central Alabama this
morning, though a frontal boundary will bring and end to wet
conditions by this evening. Thereafter, a drier and cooler 
airmass will move into the area with a period of dry weather 
expected through the end of the week. Moderating temperatures will
preclude another period of increasing rain chances during the the
weekend, however. Unsettled weather and continued rain chances, 
including the possibility of thunderstorms, are expected through
early next week.

The Alabama Forestry Commission continues to have a fire alert in
effect that includes all of Central Alabama. For more information
about restrictions, visit their web site at forestry.alabama.gov.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     68  42  66  43  72 /  10   0   0   0   0 
Anniston    70  43  67  44  73 /  10   0   0   0   0 
Birmingham  67  45  67  47  73 /  10   0   0   0   0 
Tuscaloosa  69  45  69  47  73 /  10   0   0   0   0 
Calera      69  45  68  45  72 /  10   0   0   0   0 
Auburn      72  46  68  46  71 /  20   0   0   0   0 
Montgomery  74  47  70  48  73 /  20   0   0   0   0 
Troy        72  48  70  47  72 /  20   0   0   0   0 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None. 

&&

$$