404 
FXUS63 KICT 132014
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
314 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

Forecast highlights: 
Shower/thunderstorm chances southeast Kansas late Monday night 
through Tuesday morning, and again Friday night through next 
weekend. Temperature-wise...seasonably warm weather Monday, a 
cool-down Tuesday-Wednesday, with seasonably warm temperatures 
returning Thursday through next weekend.

Tonight through Monday...quiet weather expected, as low amplitude
upper ridging traverses Mid-America. Strengthening lee trough 
will support breezy/gusty south winds Monday afternoon. Increasing
atmospheric thickness will support daytime temperatures warming 
well into the 70s for most.

Monday night through Tuesday...a fairly strong cold front will 
surge south across Mid-America, as stout shortwave energy drops 
southeast across the north-central CONUS. Modest moisture 
transport and isentropic ascent amidst weak instability may 
support a few thunderstorms across southeast Kansas late Monday 
night into Tuesday morning. Widespread thunderstorm coverage or 
strong/severe storms are not expected. Tuesday temperatures behind
the cold front will cool into the 60s on stout/gusty northwest 
winds.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...the coldest night and day of 
the next 7 days will likely be Tuesday night and Wednesday, as 
Canadian high pressure settles southeast across the Heartland. 
Forecast lows are well into the 30s, coldest central and north- 
central Kansas, with forecast highs in the low-mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

Unseasonably warm weather should materialize across the region 
from Thursday through the weekend, as an unseasonably deep upper 
trough gradually takes shape across the western CONUS. This
pattern should support high temperatures well into the 70s to 
possibly low 80s across the forecast area, with overnight lows 
mostly in the 50s to low 60s. Shower/thunderstorm chances will 
increase as well, especially by Saturday night and Sunday, as the
deep western CONUS trough and associated strong cold front 
approach from the west/northwest. Magnitude of forcing, 
moisture/instability and deep layer shear would support 
strong/severe storms, with possibly wintry precipitation well 
north across portions of Nebraska. Still quite a bit of 
uncertainty surrounding this storm system, so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

Aviation concerns are expected to remain minimal through the next
24 hours.

Pesky upper low will finally start to push east into the Upper 
Great Lakes region. Surface high over the lower Mississippi Valley
will slowly shift southeast tonight into Mon. This will allow 
surface winds to slowly come around to the southeast by early Mon 
afternoon. Confidence is high that VFR conditions will persist 
through the next 24 hours. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    45  76  54  66 /   0   0  10  10 
Hutchinson      42  76  49  66 /   0   0  10   0 
Newton          44  74  52  64 /   0   0  10  10 
ElDorado        45  74  55  65 /   0   0  10  10 
Winfield-KWLD   46  76  58  68 /   0   0  10  20 
Russell         39  76  44  63 /   0   0  10   0 
Great Bend      40  76  44  64 /   0   0  10   0 
Salina          39  75  46  64 /   0   0  10   0 
McPherson       41  75  48  64 /   0   0  10   0 
Coffeyville     45  75  60  69 /   0   0  20  30 
Chanute         43  74  58  67 /   0   0  20  30 
Iola            43  73  57  66 /   0   0  20  20 
Parsons-KPPF    43  76  59  68 /   0   0  20  30 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. 

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...RBL