652 
FXUS64 KLZK 131744 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1244 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.UPDATE...

Updated to include the 18Z aviation discussion. 

&&

.AVIATION...

SHRA continues invof KLLQ through late afternoon. While VFR should
be predominant, brief MVFR conditions could occur if heavier RA 
directly impacts the terminal. Did include MVFR BR around dawn 
Mon, but confidence is low attm. Elsewhere, VFR prevails with SW 
winds becoming VRB by late evening. 

Cooper

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 325 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night

With a mostly clear sky and nearly calm winds...temps have fallen 
back into the 30s and 40s once again early this Sun morning as SFC 
high pressure remains over the region. This SFC high will move 
further east by this afternoon...with an upper level disturbance 
passing rapidly east over SRN sections of the state. This 
disturbance will bring some increase POPs for SHRA to SRN sections 
of the CWA today. However...rainfall amounts should be fairly 
limited due to limited moisture availability. 

With the SFC high shifting east by this afternoon...some weak SRLY 
flow will return...which will allow for some slightly warmer 
conditions overnight tonight into Mon morning. This SRLY flow will 
increase for Mon...with afternoon temps warming back to near normal. 
The forecast will remain dry through Mon afternoon. 

Flow aloft will transition to a more SW direction by Mon 
night...with moisture levels rising by the end of the short term 
period. At the same time...another upper disturbance will pass over 
the area...with a warm front lifting north over AR. This will bring 
better chances for some SHRA/TSRA Mon night...along with milder 
overnight lows.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday

Model solutions this mrng rmn in good agreement with overall fcst 
trends thru PD. Showers/storms wl be ongoing acrs the FA on Tue as a 
large scale upper trof wl be passing to the N of the region. An 
assocd CDFNT wl eventually sweep thru the region late Tue and Tue 
ngt, with rain chances ending quickly fm the NW. Left some slight 
chc PoPs in for far SE AR early Wed as front works further away fm 
the FA.

High pres wl regain control acrs the Mid-South for the remainder of 
the work week. Much cooler temps wl be noted acrs the FA Wed and 
Thu. Readings wl moderate thereafter as the sfc high shifts to the E 
of AR, allowing S/SE winds to return. A new storm system is progged 
fcst to affect the region by next weekend, with low chc PoPs already 
in the fcst.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...COOPER