National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Bulk Download

PIL:
Start UTC Date @0z:
End UTC Date @0z:
325 
FXUS64 KMAF 090919 CCA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTION
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 
339 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Swift westerly flow aloft is forecast today and Thursday as a 
strong upper level storm system moves across the northern rockies
and high plains. The latest hi resolution guidance is indicating 
that isolated thunderstorms could form along the surface trough
across the eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos Region as
the cap breaks locally during maximum heating this afternoon 
and continue through early this evening. The activity should 
diminish later this evening with loss of heating. The hi resolution
guidance does not look as promising for convection Thursday 
afternoon across the aforementioned areas with a decrease in mid
level lift and moisture. Will continue to monitor. Low level 
thermal ridging and downslope flow will help push temperatures 
soaring to near record to record high temperatures this afternoon
and Thursday afternoon. Windy to very windy conditions will also 
develop in the Guadalupe Mountains today and Thursday but current
thinking is that winds should stay mainly below high wind criteria.

By Thursday night another strong cold front is forecast to plunge
through the region as the upper system continues to track across 
the northern plains. Windy to very windy conditions will develop 
behind this front along with much colder temperatures by Friday
morning. High winds look possible in the Guadalupe and Delaware 
Mountains Thursday night and Friday and High Wind Watches will 
likely be needed by later today or tonight. It will also be very 
windy across much of the remainder of the forecast area Thursday 
night with at least brief Wind Advisory winds. Will continue the 
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Permian Basin 
Thursday night with the front and upper jet in the better moisture 
convergence. Low temperatures could be near freezing across northern 
portions of Lea County New Mexico and portions of the northern 
Permian Basin Thursday and Friday morning as the center of the 
surface high pressure heads toward that region.

Behind this system the weekend looks dry with slowly moderating
temperatures to above normal by Sunday. Westerly flow aloft will 
continue early next week with above normal temperatures. A few 
disturbances in the flow along with a cold front could kick off 
some showers but confidence was not high enough at this time to 
include in the forecast.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record to record high temperatures are expected this afternoon
and Thursday afternoon at the Midland International Air and Space 
Port. 

Date       Record High      Forecast High
10/9       92 set in 1972        94 
10/10      94 set in 1965        93


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     93  68  93  41 /  10  10  10  30 
Carlsbad                       89  60  87  44 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                         95  69  97  54 /  10  10   0  10 
Fort Stockton                  94  65  93  44 /  10  10   0  10 
Guadalupe Pass                 81  57  79  37 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobbs                          88  58  87  37 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                          86  56  86  46 /   0   0   0  10 
Midland Intl Airport           94  66  93  42 /  10  10   0  10 
Odessa                         94  66  93  43 /  10  10   0  10 
Wink                           96  63  94  46 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

72/12