303 
FXUS63 KILX 061047
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
547 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019

A cold front slipped through central Illinois this morning,
bringing clearing skies into the region. This front will stall out
near the I-70 corridor today, continuing the chance for showers
for locations along and south of I-70. As High pressure builds
into the Midwest Monday, dry conditions and seasonable
temperatures will linger throughout the first half of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019

Looking over to current radar analysis, the frontal boundary has
pushed through central Illinois, making way toward the I-70
corridor in southeast Illinois. With the 7 to 10 degree
temperature spread between T and Td, shower activity has
struggled to develop across the southeast this morning. However,
as the day progresses, extra moisture will ride along this
boundary providing the opportunity to produce light rain
throughout southern Illinois into the Ohio River Valley.

Meanwhile, nw of the front, clearing skies will arrive early this
morning in the northern CWA, pushing southeast throughout today.
This will allow for abundant sunshine to lift temperatures back
into the mid 60s to near 70. Winds will continue to remain
elevated, however with the wind change, this will bring cooler
feeling temperatures to the area.

Shower activity will linger overnight in the far se CWA, before
High pressure shifts overhead into the beginning of the work week.
This will slide all precip to the east.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019

Another stretch of dry weather is expected to set up across the
Midwest through the first half of the new week. This is due to
High pressure arriving overhead, and 500mb heights leveling out
this week. Temperatures will remain seasonal during much of the
week with highs in the 60s and 70s, and lows in the 40s and 50s. A
warm up will occur Thursday, ahead of the next system to approach
the region.

This Low pressure system will slide in with an enhanced trof,
which will dig into the nwrn US Tuesday. This system is expected
to drive through the northern Plains Wednesday and reach the upper
Midwest Friday morning. Models are showing the first indications
of snow on the northern and nwrn fringes of this system. As
temperatures seem to be swinging from summer to more fall/winter,
snow and mixed precipitation will become evident on model runs.
Luckily for central Illinois and the Midwest, the snow will remain
situated well north, leaving rainfall as the precipitation type.
This frontal system will slide through the area late Thursday into
Friday, before pushing out to end the week. Current outlooks are
that temperatures could cool even more heading into next weekend.
If model data and trends hold this week, some locations will have
the chance to see their first frost of the season next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 537 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019

With the cold front through central Illinois TAF sites, the period
should be fairly quiet. Have some clouds still impacting DEC and
CMI, although these should continue to improve over the next
couple of hours. Decided to TEMPO stronger winds with gusts 
upwards of 18-20kts through 14z, and lower ceilings as frontal 
push slows. Winds expected to increase midday with diurnal 
heating, however should remain less than 12kts overall from the 
NW. Increasing clouds this afternoon as a weak wave slides across 
the Midwest, with sites holding in VFR. Some models have VCSH at 
DEC and CMI, did not carry any due to low confidence in precip 
that far north.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Baker
SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...Baker