010 
FXUS63 KFGF 031504
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1004 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019

The forecast looks on track for the most part. Tweaked
precipitation chances slightly for this morning based on
observations. It's hard to say whether there will be enough
moisture for some weak low level showers this afternoon. Will 
leave it out for now, but monitor and update if needed.

UPDATE Issued at 647 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019

Rain and snow will continue to dissipate and clear out from
southwest to northeast early this morning as drier air spreads
into the mid levels. Widespread fog has developed across portions
of central and western ND as snow begins to melt and evaporate
into the boundary layer, with this moisture remaining "trapped" 
under surface high pressure. Added patchy fog to the Devils Lake 
basin and will continue to monitor the extent of the fog 
development this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019

Early morning surface observations and webcams show that many sites 
in eastern ND and northwest MN, except for those remaining warmest 
(near 40 degrees), have seen at least some accumulating snowfall on 
grass and other vegetation overnight. Webcams show that snow has 
melted upon contact with area roads, which was expected given 
current 2 inch NDAWN soil temperatures in the 40s and 50s across the 
region. With air temperatures over much of the region remaining in 
the mid 30s to lower 40s and seasonably warm soil temperatures, 
expect the accumulated snow to gradually melt from above and below 
this morning with no travel impacts. 

GOES-16 water vapor data show drier mid level air entraining into 
the southern side of the closed upper low, causing rain and snow to 
end across the southeast ND and west central MN already. As the 
upper low progresses eastward and drier air continues to build into 
the region, expect precipitation to end a bit sooner than 
anticipated and to clear out of the region by mid morning. 

Although dry weather will take hold today, chilly and cloudy weather 
will persist for another day. High temperatures will only reach the 
40s, similar to Wednesday. There is high variability amongst the 
deterministic models regarding cloud cover today through Friday, but 
trended toward a cloudy solution as model soundings suggest low 
level stratus will remain trapped as surface high pressure 
progresses through the region and inhibits mixing. This complicates 
the overnight forecast because if skies are able to clear, 
temperatures will likely plummet to near to below freezing with 
areas of frost developing tonight. At this point, it seems more 
likely that clouds will linger and inhibit nocturnal radiational 
cooling with just some patchy frost possible.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019

During the day Friday, drier and slightly warmer weather develops
with high temperatures expected to reach the 50s. Strong southerly
low level flow and warm air advection will make for breezy 
conditions with wind gusts up to 30 mph possible Friday afternoon,
ahead of the approaching system.

Friday Night through Sunday...The cool and active pattern remains in 
place as the next upper low moves into the region. There are still 
variations with the exact track of the surface low on Saturday, but 
the set up continues to seem favorable for more precipitation for 
the CWA. The warm air advection ahead of the system will bring 
showers and even a few thunderstorms late Friday into Saturday 
morning, with more showers and thunderstorms possible as the cold 
front pushes through in the afternoon. There is a lot of spread 
among the ensemble plumes as far as QPF goes. Leaned towards the WPC 
solution of near the ensemble mean for now. The upper low will lift 
towards the Great Lakes during the day on Sunday, with some 
lingering light precip in northwestern MN. 

Monday through Wednesday...A bit of a break in the active weather is 
expected as brief upper ridging moves through ahead of the next 
shortwave mid-week. Drying trend for Monday and Tuesday with warming 
south to southwest winds. Temps should return to above average 
values with highs in the 60s and 70s. The warm up will be fairly 
short lived as there is good agreement on the next trough moving 
into Manitoba on Wednesday and pushing another cold front through.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019

Lingering rain and snow along and north of US Hwy 2 should clear
out this morning, but IFR ceilings will prevail this morning.
Ceilings should improve to MVFR (1-3kft) as the day progresses. 
Could see some breaks in cloud and improvement to low VFR ceilings
by evening but confidence is low as to exactly when VFR 
conditions will return. Put the most likely scenario in the TAFS, 
but the return to VFR ceilings could be as late as Friday mid day.
Light and variable winds today.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Knutsvig
SHORT TERM...BP
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...BP