787 
FXUS62 KJAX 301324
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
924 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY...

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL INCREASES ON TUESDAY...

...ALMA GEORGIA ON TRACK FOR DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD...

.UPDATE...
Morning fog over inland areas will slowly burn off/dissipate by
10am time frame and Surface High pressure ridge north of the
region will continue northeast steering flow with the threat of
coastal showers once again this afternoon along the NE FL coast,
while inland areas will remain Mostly Sunny with above normal
temps reaching the lower to middle 90s once again, possibly near
record levels at AMG, while Max Temps will reach the upper 80s
along the coast and near 90 along the I-95 corridor. Record High
Max Temps for the climate sites for 9/30 are included here...

JAX 94/1959...GNV 97/1934...AMG 94/1959...SSI 90/1971

The northeast flow increases a bit more tonight and this will
bring a chance for coastal showers to the entire NE FL/SE GA
coastal counties and I-95 corridor, although they should remain
disorganized and on the light side, while inland areas should see
slightly more low level NE winds which should prevent the dense
fog seen this morning, but patchy fog will still be possible. Min
temps generally in the lower 70s inland and mid/upper 70s along
the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure continues to build north of the waters and NE flow
will slowly increase early this week. Winds increasing to 15-20
knots today and seas into the 6-8 ft range offshore and 4-6 ft
nearshore and current headlines of SCEC nearshore and SCA flags
offshore look good at the moment.

Rip Currents/Surf: Onshore flow and long period swell from distant
Lorenzo will combine to produce high risk of rip current today and
Tuesday along the Atlc Coast. Morning surf/breaker reports in the
2-4 ft range and will likely increase to 3-5 ft this afternoon,
and 4-6 ft tonight with some 7 ft breakers possible along the NE 
Fl coast by early Tuesday, but confidence not high enough for High
Surf Advisory yet, and afternoon package will take a closer look
at this.

Coastal Flood: The upcoming morning high tide cycle today will be
the highest of the King Tide event and will push all sites along
the SE GA/NE FL coast and the St Johns River Basin in Action Stage
and with tidal departures remaining less than 0.5 ft, expect that
Coastal Flood Statement in place should be good enough today and
tonight. With stronger NE surge on tap for Tuesday with tidal
departures of 0.5 to 1.0 ft expected, models showing better
chances for Minor Coastal Flooding for the Atlc Coast/St Johns
Basin and Coastal Flood Advisory may need to be posted.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Alma, GA (AMG) still on track for driest September on record with
only 0.20" of rainfall, previous record was 0.24" in 1972. Records
date back to 1938.

All-climate sites across NE FL/SE GA will likely register a Top 5
or Top 10 warmest September on Record, but will fall short of the
Warmest September on Record set all all climate sites just last
year (Sept 2018).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [728 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Patchy fog and low stratus are expected this morning across the 
interior, with patchy dense fog possible across interior southeast
Georgia. Fog will lift and scatter out by late morning. 

Strong mid/upper level high pressure will remain centered over
Mississippi through the period, with northeasterly flow aloft 
prevailing. Surface high pressure will briefly weaken north of the
area this morning, as stronger high pressure builds over the 
Northeast and Mid Atlantic. Coastal showers are possible once 
again for St. Johns and Flagler Counties in the northeast low
level flow. A few showers are also possible near the Altamaha 
River as low level moisture surges southwestward towards the area 
late in the day, but otherwise dry conditions will prevail. Highs
will be in the mid to upper 80s at the beaches, the low 90s for 
inland northeast Florida and the mid 90s for inland southeast 
Georgia. 

Low level moisture will surge into the area from the northeast 
tonight, increasing the chances for coastal showers for the entire
region. Dewpoints will increase to the low to mid 70s, so
overnight lows will be warmer in the lower 70s inland and the mid
to upper 70s at the beaches.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]...

Moist air with PWAT values ranging between 1.6 and 2.0 will enter
the region on Tuesday from out of the northeast, bringing in 
scattered showers and storms developing during afternoon heating 
throughout the forecast area. Drier conditions will return on 
Wednesday when the already present ridging and influx of drier air
will inhibit convective growth, resulting in low chances for 
isolated and scattered showers along the Florida coastline. High 
temperatures for midweek will range between the lower 90s and 
upper 80s for inland areas and in the mid 80s along the coast. 
Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 
60s and lower 70s for inland areas and in the lower to mid 70s 
near the coast and for areas along the St Johns River.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Prevailing flow will continue to be out of the northeast-east 
throughout the week and into the weekend, with daily chances for 
convective development increasing through into Sunday. A cold 
front to the north is expected to move southward and stall just 
north of Georgia, with moist air moving in once again from out of 
the northeast, this weekend. Warming temperatures are expected for
the end of the week, with inland areas reaching into the lower to
mid 90s for inland areas, and then cooling for the weekend with 
temps dropping into the mid 80s. Coastal locations will see a 
similar trend, with temps dropping from the upper 80s down to the 
lower 80s during the weekend. Overnight low temperatures are 
forecasted to be in the mid to upper 60s for inland counties and 
in the lower to mid 70s for coastal areas.


.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Tuesday]

Widespread LIFR conds in FOG/LOW CIGS at inland TAF sites of
GNV/VQQ/JAX this morning with just a touch of MVFR VSBYS possible
along the coastal TAF sites. LIFR conds should burn off/dissipate
by 13-14z with mainly VFR conds through the day with increasing
E-NE winds in the 10-15 knot range. Some brief MVFR CIGS are
possible in the 14-16z time frame this morning as diurnal Cu
develops but not expected to be an issue except possibly around
the SGJ area. Coastal shower chances increase once again this
afternoon around SGJ and VCSH has been kept in the TAF for now.


.FIRE WEATHER...

High dispersion values are possible for inland areas today and the
next few days, with breezy northeasterly winds along the coast 
through midweek. Isolated to widely scattered showers are possible
once again for St Johns and Flagler Counties, with mainly dry 
conditions elsewhere. Rain chances increase area-wide with a 
slight chance of thunderstorm development possible on Tuesday. 
Relative humidity values remain above criteria through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  95  70  91  68  92 /  10   0  20   0   0 
SSI  86  76  84  75  86 /   0  30  30  10  10 
JAX  90  73  87  73  88 /   0  20  40  10  10 
SGJ  86  76  85  74  85 /  20  20  40  20  20 
GNV  91  71  90  70  90 /   0   0  30  10  10 
OCF  91  71  90  70  90 /  10  10  20  10  20 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn.

AM...None.
&&