755 
FXUS63 KOAX 152318
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
618 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Considerable mid-level ridging is forecast over the next 24 hr 
from the mid MS Valley into central Canada, downstream from a 
longer wavelength trough moving onto the West Coast. Between 
those two large-scale features, a shortwave trough currently over
the southern Rockies will accelerate northeast into the northern 
Plains by Tuesday. The glancing influence of that disturbance 
could support a small chance for showers or a thunderstorm over 
northeast NE late Monday night. Otherwise, the the main weather 
story will be the continuation of warm and humid conditions 
beneath the building mid-level ridge. Highs on Monday and Tuesday 
will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with afternoon heat indices 
in the lower to mid 90s.

By Tuesday night into Wednesday, a vigorous shortwave trough will
pivot out of the western U.S. trough across the northern Plains,
promoting the movement of a cool front into the region. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase with the arrival of the
boundary, and slightly cooler temperatures are possible across 
the northern part of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Latest medium-range model data are relatively consistent in 
depicting the movement of the western U.S. trough into the 
central part of the nation during the latter half of the work week
into next weekend. Under that scenario, a warm and humid air mass
would persist across the mid MO Valley on Thursday and Friday, 
ahead of a cold front moving through the region on Saturday. Best 
precipitation chances will be Wednesday night into early Thursday 
along a residual front lifting north through the area, and Friday
night into Saturday with the arrival of the weekend cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Quiet weather prevails through the TAF period. Clear skies will be
partially obscured by occasional clouds above 20,000 ft AGL. VFR 
conditions will hold through 0Z Tuesday at KOFK, KOMA, and KLNK. 

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...Nicolaisen