AFOS product AFDFWD
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFWD
Product Timestamp: 2019-09-11 00:41 UTC

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578 
FXUS64 KFWD 110041 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
741 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019


.UPDATE...
A combination of seabreeze and outflow boundary interactions has
kept convection going across parts of Central Texas, but the loss
of surface heating will shut things off soon. In the meantime, a
grid-update was needed to indicate chance to slight chance POPs 
across the southwest zones through early evening. Said boundaries
have also increased surface winds, which too have been updated 
in the near-term based on the latest trends. A seasonably warm 
and mostly clear night can be expected for the rest of the region.
Low clouds will surge northward again around daybreak, bringing a
cloudy start to Wednesday across the southeast half of the 
region, but little in the way of additional precipitation is 
expected.

30

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 625 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019/
/00Z TAFs/

A weak upper trough over South Texas helped to enhance seabreeze 
convection this afternoon, allowing scattered showers and storms
to push inland into Central Texas. Convection is diurnally driven
and will dissipate over the next few hours with the loss of
surface heating. Will keep VCTS at KACT and feel that VCSH will 
suffice in the Metroplex where only a few stray showers have 
managed to develop, with all activity likely gone around 01z. 
Otherwise, another northward stratus surge is expected overnight 
with MVFR cigs likely at KACT by 12Z. Veered flow should keep cigs
just east of the Dallas-Ft Worth area, but it may get close and 
will need to keep an eye on satellite trends late tonight. 

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 311 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019/
/Wednesday Night Through Early Next Week/
Hot and mostly rain free conditions will continue for most areas.
The two periods of potential rain and thunderstorms for some will
be Thursday night/Friday and Monday/Tuesday. The Thursday 
night/Friday rain and thunderstorm potential will be limited
primarily to areas northwest and west of the Metroplex, perhaps 
sneaking into the metroplex. The Monday/Tuesday possible 
precipitation will be HIGHLY dependent on what happens in the 
tropics and at this point the models are all over the place so 
that part of the forecast is even lower confidence than normal for
the day 6-7 time period.

By Wednesday night, any convection that was able to have spawned
during the afternoon hours will have died down due to loss of
daytime heating.  During the day on Thursday, the weather may feel a bit
more bearable with lower afternoon dew points (upper 60s) and PWATs
(around 1.5). This is due to the ridge that is currently to our 
east retrograding a bit westward which will swing the winds around
to a more southerly to SSWly direction, allowing a relatively drier
continental airmass influence vs. the persistent tropical/Gulf 
moisture airmass that we have been stuck in so far this week.

By Thursday evening, the low pressure system that is currently 
taking shape on the leeside of the Rockies will track 
northeastward into the Northern Plains. The majority of the 
instability will be wrapped up in the low itself and extend 
southward into the Central Plains along a trailing surface frontal
boundary. As the front trails further to the SSW into OK and N TX
much of the instability is less impressive, particularly as you 
get into N TX. The front appears to stall/wash out a bit as it 
attempts to move from NW TX into N TX Thursday night into Friday 
morning. There will be some hope for rain and thunderstorms 
though, mainly for areas to the northwest and west of the 
Metroplex Thursday night as the front sags slowly southward. By 
Friday, the front is ill defined but somewhat still noticeable in 
the models, mainly hung up near the Red River. 

The bottom line for now is that we have low end PoPs (20-30%) and
isolated rain and thunderstorm chances in our extreme NW zones 
Thursday night after midnight with rain and thunderstorm chances 
increasing and becoming more scattered over our northwest zones on
Friday. For now, we also have some isolated/low end PoPs (20-30%)
sneaking into the Metroplex on Friday. Stay tuned for future 
updates though as we get closer to the event and we get some 
mesoscale model guidance to help us refine the forecast.

The front dissipates by Friday night and then the forecast gets a
bit tricky. The model consensus is in agreement for now that we 
will have a hot and rain free weekend across North and Central TX,
but the early part of next week could get interesting. By
Saturday, most models are depicting a low pressure system 
developing in the eastern Gulf. After Saturday, the models diverge
significantly. The GFS/Canadian show a potential tropical cyclone
developing and tracking into the Lower MS Valley on Sunday into 
Monday. In this scenario, the forecast would more than likely mean
that our area would continue to see rain free conditions through 
early next week. On the other hand, the ECMWF model, although it 
doesn't show much in the way of tropical cyclone development, it 
does show the low tracking into the western Gulf on Sunday into 
Monday. In this scenario, moisture from this system would have the
potential to stream into North and Central TX by early next week 
giving us the chance for some rain and thunderstorms. Due to the 
high level of uncertainty at this time, it was difficult to pin 
point any favored areas for rain, but for now we do have low PoPs 
in our southern and eastern portions of the CWA for Monday and 
Tuesday. 

It is important to stress again though that any forecast for early
next week is low confidence due to a low level of certainty with
what will happen in the tropics. So, again, stay tuned for future
updates.  

Hoeth

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 159 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019/
/This Afternoon Through Wednesday/

Another hot and breezy afternoon is expected across North and
Central Texas. We continue to be in the middle of a surface high 
pressure to the east and a trough to the west. Like we saw 
yesterday, the typical summer diurnal convection is popping-up 
across southeast Texas and approaching the southeast Central TX. 
For now, we maintain a dry forecast for areas north of the I-20 
corridor, but we can't rule out a cell or two across parts of 
North Texas. Any convection should end this evening with the loss 
of daytime heating, leaving a tranquil weather night. Overnight 
lows will stay in the low to mid 70s. Low clouds will be 
transported once again Wednesday morning, but will scatter out 
with the daytime mixing. If, how long and how much cloud cover we 
will get will help determine how hot will get during the 
afternoon. In general, we anticipate low to mid 90s across the 
region with a slight chance of afternoon convection across the 
southeast counties.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  93  76  97  78 /   5   0   0   5   0 
Waco                75  94  74  96  75 /  20  10   0   5   0 
Paris               73  91  74  93  74 /   0   0   0   5   0 
Denton              75  94  76  96  76 /   5   0   0   5  10 
McKinney            75  93  76  95  76 /   0   0   0   5   0 
Dallas              77  95  77  97  79 /   5   0   0   5   0 
Terrell             75  94  76  97  76 /   0   5   0   5   0 
Corsicana           74  94  74  94  75 /   5  10   0   5   0 
Temple              74  94  74  94  73 /  30  20   5   5   0 
Mineral Wells       73  93  72  94  73 /  10   5   0   5  10 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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