National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDFWD
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDFWD
Product Timestamp: 2019-09-11 00:41 UTC
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578 FXUS64 KFWD 110041 AAA AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 741 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019 .UPDATE... A combination of seabreeze and outflow boundary interactions has kept convection going across parts of Central Texas, but the loss of surface heating will shut things off soon. In the meantime, a grid-update was needed to indicate chance to slight chance POPs across the southwest zones through early evening. Said boundaries have also increased surface winds, which too have been updated in the near-term based on the latest trends. A seasonably warm and mostly clear night can be expected for the rest of the region. Low clouds will surge northward again around daybreak, bringing a cloudy start to Wednesday across the southeast half of the region, but little in the way of additional precipitation is expected. 30 && .AVIATION... /Issued 625 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019/ /00Z TAFs/ A weak upper trough over South Texas helped to enhance seabreeze convection this afternoon, allowing scattered showers and storms to push inland into Central Texas. Convection is diurnally driven and will dissipate over the next few hours with the loss of surface heating. Will keep VCTS at KACT and feel that VCSH will suffice in the Metroplex where only a few stray showers have managed to develop, with all activity likely gone around 01z. Otherwise, another northward stratus surge is expected overnight with MVFR cigs likely at KACT by 12Z. Veered flow should keep cigs just east of the Dallas-Ft Worth area, but it may get close and will need to keep an eye on satellite trends late tonight. 30 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 311 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019/ /Wednesday Night Through Early Next Week/ Hot and mostly rain free conditions will continue for most areas. The two periods of potential rain and thunderstorms for some will be Thursday night/Friday and Monday/Tuesday. The Thursday night/Friday rain and thunderstorm potential will be limited primarily to areas northwest and west of the Metroplex, perhaps sneaking into the metroplex. The Monday/Tuesday possible precipitation will be HIGHLY dependent on what happens in the tropics and at this point the models are all over the place so that part of the forecast is even lower confidence than normal for the day 6-7 time period. By Wednesday night, any convection that was able to have spawned during the afternoon hours will have died down due to loss of daytime heating. During the day on Thursday, the weather may feel a bit more bearable with lower afternoon dew points (upper 60s) and PWATs (around 1.5). This is due to the ridge that is currently to our east retrograding a bit westward which will swing the winds around to a more southerly to SSWly direction, allowing a relatively drier continental airmass influence vs. the persistent tropical/Gulf moisture airmass that we have been stuck in so far this week. By Thursday evening, the low pressure system that is currently taking shape on the leeside of the Rockies will track northeastward into the Northern Plains. The majority of the instability will be wrapped up in the low itself and extend southward into the Central Plains along a trailing surface frontal boundary. As the front trails further to the SSW into OK and N TX much of the instability is less impressive, particularly as you get into N TX. The front appears to stall/wash out a bit as it attempts to move from NW TX into N TX Thursday night into Friday morning. There will be some hope for rain and thunderstorms though, mainly for areas to the northwest and west of the Metroplex Thursday night as the front sags slowly southward. By Friday, the front is ill defined but somewhat still noticeable in the models, mainly hung up near the Red River. The bottom line for now is that we have low end PoPs (20-30%) and isolated rain and thunderstorm chances in our extreme NW zones Thursday night after midnight with rain and thunderstorm chances increasing and becoming more scattered over our northwest zones on Friday. For now, we also have some isolated/low end PoPs (20-30%) sneaking into the Metroplex on Friday. Stay tuned for future updates though as we get closer to the event and we get some mesoscale model guidance to help us refine the forecast. The front dissipates by Friday night and then the forecast gets a bit tricky. The model consensus is in agreement for now that we will have a hot and rain free weekend across North and Central TX, but the early part of next week could get interesting. By Saturday, most models are depicting a low pressure system developing in the eastern Gulf. After Saturday, the models diverge significantly. The GFS/Canadian show a potential tropical cyclone developing and tracking into the Lower MS Valley on Sunday into Monday. In this scenario, the forecast would more than likely mean that our area would continue to see rain free conditions through early next week. On the other hand, the ECMWF model, although it doesn't show much in the way of tropical cyclone development, it does show the low tracking into the western Gulf on Sunday into Monday. In this scenario, moisture from this system would have the potential to stream into North and Central TX by early next week giving us the chance for some rain and thunderstorms. Due to the high level of uncertainty at this time, it was difficult to pin point any favored areas for rain, but for now we do have low PoPs in our southern and eastern portions of the CWA for Monday and Tuesday. It is important to stress again though that any forecast for early next week is low confidence due to a low level of certainty with what will happen in the tropics. So, again, stay tuned for future updates. Hoeth && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 159 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019/ /This Afternoon Through Wednesday/ Another hot and breezy afternoon is expected across North and Central Texas. We continue to be in the middle of a surface high pressure to the east and a trough to the west. Like we saw yesterday, the typical summer diurnal convection is popping-up across southeast Texas and approaching the southeast Central TX. For now, we maintain a dry forecast for areas north of the I-20 corridor, but we can't rule out a cell or two across parts of North Texas. Any convection should end this evening with the loss of daytime heating, leaving a tranquil weather night. Overnight lows will stay in the low to mid 70s. Low clouds will be transported once again Wednesday morning, but will scatter out with the daytime mixing. If, how long and how much cloud cover we will get will help determine how hot will get during the afternoon. In general, we anticipate low to mid 90s across the region with a slight chance of afternoon convection across the southeast counties. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 93 76 97 78 / 5 0 0 5 0 Waco 75 94 74 96 75 / 20 10 0 5 0 Paris 73 91 74 93 74 / 0 0 0 5 0 Denton 75 94 76 96 76 / 5 0 0 5 10 McKinney 75 93 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 5 0 Dallas 77 95 77 97 79 / 5 0 0 5 0 Terrell 75 94 76 97 76 / 0 5 0 5 0 Corsicana 74 94 74 94 75 / 5 10 0 5 0 Temple 74 94 74 94 73 / 30 20 5 5 0 Mineral Wells 73 93 72 94 73 / 10 5 0 5 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 30/91