027 
FXUS64 KFWD 092341
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
641 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019


.AVIATION...
The afternoon convection across parts of central and east Texas
will dissipate with the loss of heating and therefore not impact
the TAF sites. Another round of convection is expected to develop
across central and southeastern Texas on Tuesday and move
northward, but once again the chance for impacts at any one area
will be too low to mention in the TAF. 

Otherwise generally clear skies are expected for most of tonight
but low stratus will develop and move into the Waco area around
sunrise and result in MVFR conditions through mid morning before
the moisture mixes out. This moisture will make a run at the
Metroplex airports, but no MOS supports MVFR CIGs and model
soundings keep the moisture layer rather thin. Still the models
didn't handle the northward extent well last night so will show
SCT018 for the Metroplex area TAFs in the morning. 

Otherwise S/SE winds at 10-15 kt will prevail through the period.



TR.92

&&


.LONG TERM... /Issued 246 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019/
/Wednesday through Saturday/

Above normal warmth is anticipated in the long term forecast 
period across the area. There will be low rain chances across 
Central Texas through the end of the week, with slightly better 
rain chances across the northern Big Country and into western 
parts of North Texas.

The diffuse upper low across the upper Texas Coast will continue
to churn north and westward towards Central Texas before it
becomes quite diffuse late Wednesday into Thursday. This means 
that we will see a slight enhancement in our diurnal rain chances 
across Central Texas on Wednesday afternoon. Lift is still remains
quite meager with this feature and at this time I am expecting a 
low coverage of showers/storms (only about 20-30 percent 
coverage). Daytime high temperatures on Wednesday will remain 
above normal for this time of year, with most locales in the mid 
90s. With a height gradient at 925mb and plenty of afternoon sun
---after morning stratus decays---there should be the transfer of 
around 15-20 knots of flow down to the surface. This should help 
afternoon dewpoints mix out and fall into the 60s. This yields max
apparent temperatures below Heat Advisory criteria. Regardless, 
it still remains hot and individuals should exercise their heat 
safety precautions. 

On Thursday, the upper level feature across the upper Texas Coast 
will meander to the south and west of Central Texas and likely 
play little role in our weather. I'll maintain a 20 PoP across our
southern most areas (south of the I-14/HWY 79 corridor) in case 
there's any enhancement in sea-breeze activity. Temperatures will
likely be within 1-2 degrees of the previous day and so I've 
continued with a mostly persistence forecast for Thursday. Above 
normal temperatures with highs in the low to mid 90s are 
anticipated. 

There could be some relief for some on Friday as a deep upper 
trough ejects out of the northern Rockies into the northern High 
Plains. Models have generally remained in decent agreement 
regarding this feature, although the GFS appears a bit stronger 
with the magnitude of jet level winds compared to some of the
other guidance. Regardless, this appears largely inconsequential 
as just about all models have the attendant front stalling
somewhere between the I-40 corridor and the Red River. The tail 
end of the 12 UTC NAM indicates a decent conveyor of low level 
theta-e air streaming northward into what will likely be a loosely
organized line of showers and storms along this front. Low level 
wind fields from other long range guidance suggest a 20-25 knot 
low level jet should be sufficient to aid in some southward 
progression of this activity. As the low level flow veers and 
weakens through the day on Friday, it's probable that showers and
storms will diminish quickly as it nears and slips to the south 
of the Red River. Exactly how fast this occurs is unknown. Given
that model guidance has started to cluster on a solution which 
keeps the front closer to the I-40 corridor, I'll remain 
conservative on PoPs compared to blended guidance. One scenario in
which this front could sag farther south than currently forecast---
and thus greater rain/storm chances along with cooler 
conditions---is the vigor of convection. Should a large cold pool
develop, this front will be shunted southward and likely result 
in a substantial temperature/PoP bust for Friday. For now, PoPs 
are placed near and northwest of a Goldthwaite to Dallas to 
Sulphur Springs line.
 
Wherever rain/clouds and north winds invade, temperatures will be
lower. Again, exactly where this occurs is unknown at this time. 
Confidence in cooler conditions is highest along the western Red 
River Valley and across the Big Country and I'll advertise highs 
in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Elsewhere, hot conditions 
will persist with readings in the mid to upper 90s. Next weekend 
looks rain/storm free with temperatures slowly moderating. The 
zonal flow aloft gives us some hope that it won't be a scorcher, 
but it is possible that the ridge rebuilds stronger than currently
forecast and if the ECMWF is to verify, we could see temperatures
return to the century mark. 

Bain

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1253 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019/
/Today Through Tuesday/

A slow-moving, mid level impulse over Deep South Texas will move
very little through tonight, as it remains cut off from better
steering currents further north. To the east and northeast of this
feature, precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches is
lifting north across eastern Central Texas. Isolated-scattered
diurnally-driven convection can be seen along a northward moving  
seabreeze boundary and expect this to continue to progress northward
into Central Texas through sunset this evening. This is already 
being noted on regional GOES satellite imagery and regional 
radars. Once daytime heating, this activity should quickly
dissipate by no later than mid evening along especially the I-45
corridor. 

A 25-30 knot low level flow just above the surface should help to
continue to draw rich gulf moisture northward overnight with
developing stratus arriving across the area through sunrise
Tuesday. Breezy, humid, and warm conditions will continue tonight. 

The South Texas impulse will begin a migration northward
toward the Texas Hill Country on Tuesday, while also shearing and
weakening as it encounters increasing southwesterly flow aloft in
advance of a broad longwave mid level trough over the Western
CONUS. In addition, another seabreeze influence looks to be in
play and the combination of diurnal heating and subtle forcing
from these features will likely lead to another round of
isolated-scattered showers and storms across Central Texas. The
western periphery of the Southeast CONUS mid level ridge and it's
associated subsidence should keep North Texas rain-free with 
above normal temperatures continuing with highs well into the 90s
for most locales (normal are around 90 degrees for this time of 
year). Occasionally gusty south winds between 10-15 mph are 
also expected to continue. 

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  95  76  95  76 /  10   5   0   5   0 
Waco                75  95  74  96  74 /  10  20  20  10   0 
Paris               72  93  72  91  73 /   0   5   0   5   0 
Denton              75  94  74  94  75 /   5   5   0   5   0 
McKinney            75  94  74  94  75 /  10   5   0   5   0 
Dallas              77  96  77  95  77 /  10  10   0   5   0 
Terrell             75  95  74  96  75 /  10  10   0   5   0 
Corsicana           74  94  73  93  73 /  10  20  10  10   0 
Temple              75  94  73  94  72 /  10  30  30  20   5 
Mineral Wells       72  93  71  93  71 /   0   5   5   5   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

92