441 
FXUS64 KMOB 082308 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
608 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...A few showers and storms over interior areas will
diminish and end this evening. Patchy fog with IFR/MVFR conditions
will be possible late tonight. Isolated showers and storms
redevelop across most of the area again by early Monday afternoon.
Light and variable winds tonight will be followed by a southerly
flow at 5 to 10 knots developing on Monday. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2019/ 

NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...Mid and upper level high 
pressure ridge will continue over the region tonight and Monday, 
as a weak stationary surface boundary continues across central 
portions of MS and AL. Dewpoint temperatures south of this 
boundary over most of our area are primarily in the 70s, lower 70s 
inland but mid to upper 70s near the coast. Dry air in the mid to 
upper levels of the atmosphere has mixed down in locations over the 
interior and a few lucky folks have dewpoints in the upper 60s 
there. Overall though, the high dewpoints, combined with high 
temperatures reaching the upper 90s in many locations today is 
resulting in heat indices rising above 108 degrees in many areas and 
a Heat Advisory remains in effect for the entire forecast area 
through 7 pm this evening. Highest "feels like" temperatures noted 
so far today have been around Pensacola where heat indices have been 
as high as 110 to 114 degrees. Preliminarily, it appears that we 
already have set new record highs for the day in both Mobile (99 
degrees) and Pensacola (98 degrees). A very few isolated showers 
have popped up here and there this afternoon, but these will fade 
away by shortly after sunset this evening. 

Lows tonight will range from the lower 70s over our interior 
northwestern counties to the mid 70s interior southeast, but 
likely remain in the upper 70s near the coast. On Monday, not many 
changes, but HiRes models do suggest a little more in coverage for 
afternoon showers and storms, MLCAPE of around 3000 J/KG in some 
locations, with low end chance PoPs noted for the northern half of 
the forecast area (mainly north of Highway 84), with slight chances 
further south.  With this, will probably see a little more cloud 
cover on Monday, and combined with the continued dry air aloft and 
associated daytime mixing, high temperatures (low to mid 90s) and 
heat indices should be slightly lower than today. As a result the 
Heat Advisory will not be extended into Monday for our area, 
although many locations will still see "feel like" temperatures 
up to around 107 degrees. 12/DS

SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...Deep layer
ridging will remain in place across the southeast through mid-
week. The resulting large-scale subsidence will continue to
suppress showers and thunderstorms development. As a result, most
areas will remain hot and dry with temps in the low to mid 90s and
heat index values of 100 to 105. /13

LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...Deep layer ridging will
continue across the southeastern states through much of the week.
The large-scale subsidence will continue to dominate the region
with mostly dry conditions continuing through Friday. Rain 
chances will increase late in the week as an easterly wave passes
over the Gulf of Mexico. High temps Thursday and Friday will be 
in the low to mid 90s, cooling several degrees across the board 
over the weekend. /13

MARINE...A surface ridge will build west over the northern and 
eastern Gulf of Mexico through most of the upcoming week. The 
light, somewhat variable but mostly onshore wind flow tonight will 
increase slightly and become more southeasterly through Tuesday, 
then a light to moderate easterly flow Wednesday through Friday. 
Seas 2 feet or less through mid week, but increasing to 2 to 3 feet 
late in the week. 12/DS

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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