982 
FXUS63 KUNR 080502
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1102 PM MDT Sat Sep 7 2019

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 131 PM MDT Sat Sep 7 2019

Upper troughing will continue into central Canada, supporting a 
continued southward bias to the jet stream and associated storm 
track as another mean trough remains in the NE PAC. This will 
continue to support an active and wet pattern, with seasonal to 
below normal temps. Inverted trough remains over the eastern FA 
with cool moist flow to the east and drier warmer flow to the 
west. Ample shear and sufficient CAPE remains in place for an 
isolated strong to severe cell or two this afternoon and early 
evening, mainly from around Faith to Winner. Cold front will push 
through the region tonight as low clouds and some fog pushes into 
the area. Upslope drizzle looks likely over the northern Black 
Hills foothills later tonight, with another round of showers 
expected across NW SD. Mainly dry conds expected over the SW 
third. Much cooler conds expected for Sunday as flow turns 
easterly during the day, supporting cool and moist upslope flow 
over the region. Have cut highs sig Sunday for this. Some 
sprinklers or drizzle will also be possible later in the afternoon
over the eastern Black Hills and associated foothills. Another 
decent chance of showers and thunderstorms will arrive Sunday 
night as the next strong wave pushes over the region. Ample 
moisture will again be available this system with a half inch or 
more of rain possible over portions of western SD. Cooler weather 
with periodic chances for rain is on track for the remainder of 
the period, with more chances of rain as active flow continues. 
Indications remain that a strong upper trough and associated cold 
front will push into the area by Wed-Thur of next week. This 
system looks to support another round of decent rains Wed night 
with much cooler conds for Thur-Thur night. Warmer drier weather 
then looks to be on track for next weekend as mean ridging may 
setup over the eastern Rockies and Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued At 1100 PM MDT Sat Sep 7 2019

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued At 531 PM MDT Sat Sep 7 2019

MVFR/IFR conditions in low clouds/patchy fog will persist across
northwestern SD tonight. Low clouds, patchy fog, and some light 
rain or drizzle will continue to push south onto the western SD 
plains, the Black Hills area, and much of northeastern WY, 
bringing more MVFR/IFR conditions through Sunday morning. MVFR 
ceilings will persist across western SD on Sunday, while 
northeastern WY and far southwest SD should become VFR by noon.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...15