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Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 41
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL052019
1142 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

**WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS FROM DORIAN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND 
WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA** 

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for 
      Coastal Flagler and Coastal St. Johns
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Inland Flagler and Inland 
      St. Johns
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect 
      for Inland Glynn
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Clay, Eastern Marion, 
      Inland Camden, Inland Duval, Inland Nassau, and Putnam
    - A Storm Surge Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane 
      Watch are in effect for Coastal Camden, Coastal Duval, Coastal 
      Glynn, and Coastal Nassau

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 280 miles southeast of Jacksonville FL or about 220 miles 
      southeast of Flagler Beach FL
    - 27.1N 78.6W
    - Storm Intensity 110 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 320 degrees at 2 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Dorian remains a very strong hurricane with peak winds of
110 mph with higher gusts. Dorian was stationary early this morning
but is now tracking slowly to the northwest at 2 mph. As Dorian
approaches, it is forecast to run nearly parallel to the Florida
coastline into Wednesday. 

With a track that is nearly parallel and close to the coast, small
east-west changes in the forecast track could have large influences on
the threat to Northeast Florida for damaging winds and life-
threatening storm surge. Impacts of storm surge and wind from Dorian
will increase tonight and Wednesday. If Dorian were to approach even 
closer, it would produce more serious impacts to coastal areas. For 
this reason, both a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch 
are in effect. A hurricane warning remains in effect for Flagler 
and St Johns counties.

Listen to local officials and heed evacuation orders as given. Large
battering waves and higher than normal tides will add to the
destructive potential, along with severe beach erosion especially for
Flagler and St Johns counties. 

Periods of heavy rainfall are forecast over eastern parts of northeast
Florida and coastal southeast Georgia and with total accumulations of
3 to 6 inches possible. Flash flooding is possible, especially in
urban and poorly drained areas.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive 
impacts across the coast of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding 
      accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, 
      with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating 
      debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads 
      washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and 
      barriers may become stressed.
    - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
    - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many 
      small craft broken away from moorings, especially in 
      unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited 
impacts in and around Satsuma, San Mateo, Welaka, and Palatka.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive 
impacts across coastal areas of northeast Florida including Flagler
and St Johns counties. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having 
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural 
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed. 
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be 
      uninhabitable for weeks. 
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and 
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban 
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and 
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to 
significant impacts across eastern Marion, Putnam, Clay, Duval,
Nassau, Camden, and Glynn counties.

Elsewhere across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, little to 
no impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible 
significant impacts across across coastal counties of northeast Florida 
and southeast Georgia. Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and 
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter 
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially 
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and 
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. 
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid 
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage 
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as 
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions 
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible 
limited impacts across inland northeast Florida and southeast Georgia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including 
possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately. 

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind, falling 
trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move, relocate to 
a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep roadways open 
for those under evacuation orders. 

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time to 
get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle ahead of 
time.

Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose items 
and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving. 

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and 
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a 
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible. 
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges 
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather 
forecast before departing and drive with caution.

If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter 
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have 
pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of 
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any 
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency 
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are 
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles 
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide 
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly 
ventilated area.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an 
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in 
which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which 
it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay 
attention for instructions from local authorities.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and 
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge 
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find 
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed 
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone 
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded 
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter 
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not 
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter 
options.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large 
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or 
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of 
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets 
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes 
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather 
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather 
Service in Jacksonville FL around 6 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions 
warrant.

$$

ARS