523 
FXUS66 KPDT 312330 AAA
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
430 PM PDT Sat Aug 31 2019

Updated aviation discussion

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday...An upper low and trough 
remains offshore this afternoon with a ridge centered over Idaho. 
Our area remains under a southwest flow and moisture flowing into 
the area has developed some cumulus over the Washington Cascades and 
the eastern Oregon mountains. Clouds are not showing much vertical 
development but models continue to show weak instability so have 
kept a slight chance of showers this afternoon over the eastern 
Oregon mountains. Any showers should end with sundown. Rain amounts 
will be just a couple hundredths of an inch at best. The upper low 
and trough will move to the British Columbia coast tonight and into 
British Columbia tomorrow and tomorrow night, weakening over time. 
The main impact will be breezy 10 to 20 mph winds in the Columbia 
Basin and Kittitas valley tomorrow afternoon. Skies will be mostly 
clear with any precipitation limited to the Washington Cascade 
crest. As the trough departs to the east Monday a flat and dry 
westerly flow will be over the area followed by a building ridge 
over the area Monday night and Tuesday. Therefore, dry weather will 
continue through Tuesday with generally clear skies and light 
winds. Temperatures tomorrow will be in the upper 70s to around 90 
before cooling a few degrees on Monday. Tuesday will warm back to 
the 80s to around 90. Perry 

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday...Models have been 
struggling with consistency from run-to-run lately.  At this time, 
they are in good agreement through Wednesday as an upper level low 
moves northward along the northern California and southwest Oregon 
coast.  By Wednesday night, they begin to diverge with the GFS 
moving the low eastward across northern Oregon on Thursday while the 
ECMWF shows it moving northeasterly into Washington.  By Friday, 
both show a transitory upper level ridge over the area in the wake 
of the aforementioned low.  The GFS is more amplified with the next 
system showing southerly flow redeveloping over the area by Friday 
night.  The ECMWF shows a weaker system with southwesterly flow. 
Given these discrepancies, will be slow to react to the convective 
threat by the middle of the week.  At this time, the best chance of 
precipitation appears to be Thursday evening.  However, there could 
be a threat of convection from Wednesday evening to Thursday night 
if the GFS solution pans out.  Daytime highs will remain above 
normal through the period.  Earle

&&

.AVIATION...Previous discussion...00Z TAFs...VFR conditions will 
prevail for all TAF sites for the next 24 hours. There will be some 
locally breezy conditions on Sunday, but otherwise winds will be 
mostly light. 88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  62  86  59  85 /   0   0   0   0 
ALW  64  88  60  86 /   0   0   0   0 
PSC  65  90  62  88 /   0   0   0   0 
YKM  59  86  56  85 /   0   0   0   0 
HRI  64  89  60  87 /   0   0   0   0 
ELN  60  83  56  85 /   0   0   0   0 
RDM  52  85  49  86 /   0   0   0   0 
LGD  57  87  53  83 /  20   0   0   0 
GCD  57  87  54  86 /  10   0   0   0 
DLS  65  83  60  87 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

83/81/88