765 
FXUS65 KBOU 310339
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
939 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019

We got a second round of thunderstorms as another little shortwave
moved into the convergence zone over northeastern Colorado. These
storms will likely continue for a few more hours as there are
southeast winds blowing lower 60s dew points into the convergence
zone. The severe threat should be about over though as it has been
cooler out there all day. The weaker activity on the leading edge
now seems to confirm this.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019

Latest satellite data indicates mainly isolated and disorganized
convection developing this afternoon. There should be a little
more coverage as we head through the peak heating period and into
early evening, but most upper level support appears to be pushing
off to the east. SPC MLCAPE analysis has up to 1000 J/kg over the
plains just east of Denver, and 0-6 km bulk shear does lend
support to a couple strong/severe storms with wind gusts up to 60
mph and isolated large hail greater than 1 inch in diameter. Most
storms should produce just brief rain, lightning, and gusty 
winds.

Storm coverage should gradually decrease west to east this
evening, but there's still a threat of storms over the
northeastern corner of the state as the tail end of another short
wave or outflow from convection now in northern Wyoming clips the
state.  

On Saturday, the upper level ridge will begin to amplify. This
will lead to the beginning of a warming trend this holiday
weekend. Highs should approach 90F along the Front Range. With the
warming and drying aloft, there will be less storm coverage and
those that do form will be high based producing only gusty winds
and little rainfall. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019

Sunday and Monday will be a warm finish to the Summer holiday
weekend as the strong upper level ridge over the southwestern U.S.
reaches is maximum intensity. 500 mb heights peak around 596 dm
Sunday afternoon. Winds aloft will be light and out of the
west which will increase the downsloping effect through Monday.
700 mb temperatures are forecast to reach +18C which will
correspond to surface temperatures on the plains in the mid to
upper 90s. Mid level temperatures will be warm enough to keep
afternoon convection capped, and skies will be partly cloudy to
mostly sunny. Pressure gradients will remain weak over the
mountains, but the eastern plains may see good southerlies Sunday
afternoon. The warm temperatures and low humidities will raise the
fire danger, but a lack of winds over the mountains should keep
dangerous fire conditions from developing.  

From Tuesday through Friday, weak intrusions of cooler air are
expected to come down from Wyoming. Aloft, the upper ridge will
weaken and westerly flow aloft across the northern Rockies will
increase to moderate. Each afternoon through the week will see a
chance of showers developing over the mountains and moving across
the plains. Afternoon highs should be in the 80s across the
plains. Overnight temperatures will be around seasonal normals.  

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 930 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2019

VFR through Saturday. Isolated storms with gusty winds are
possible 21z-03z but the chance of any impact at the terminals is
less than 30 percent.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gimmestad
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Dankers
AVIATION...Gimmestad