223 
FXUS64 KFWD 180435
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1135 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019


.AVIATION...
/06z TAFs/

Convection across Northwest Texas and southwestern Oklahoma is
still ongoing as of 11pm, although this activity remains of 
little consequence for the TAF sites tonight. Meanwhile,
respectable southeasterly flow prevails through the low levels, 
which should allow for the development of low stratus across parts
of Central Texas prior to daybreak. At this time, am expecting 
the greatest potential for cigs to remain SE of Waco, and will 
show no more than a SCT deck between 1-2 kft for KACT. However, 
some brief cigs may need to be introduced depending on overnight 
trends. Otherwise, VFR will prevail through the period. Winds will
generally be 10-15 kts out of the SSE with some higher gusts 
around 20 kts Sunday afternoon. Additional convection is expected 
across southern Oklahoma Sunday afternoon and evening, but should 
not directly impact the TAF sites. 

-Stalley

&&


.UPDATE... /Issued 848 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019/
Upstream convection across Northwest Texas continues to wane with
loss of daytime heating, and is expected to dissipate over the 
next few hours. The more isolated convection near Abilene was 
purely diurnally driven as convective temperatures were reached, 
and is dissipating much more quickly than convection in southwest 
Oklahoma which was aided by ascent from a weak shortwave. The 
latter dynamically-aided convection will take a bit longer to 
weaken this evening. Some silent 10% PoPs are in place across our
northwestern and Red River counties to handle the small chance 
that lingering light precipitation survives into the CWA prior to 
its demise. 

Otherwise, have nudged sky cover upwards across the previously
discussed areas due to the presence of anvil cirrus which may 
linger overnight. The remainder of the forecast is on track with
low temperatures only expected to fall into the upper 70s or
around 80 overnight. 

-Stalley

&&

.DISCUSSION... /Issued 326 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019/

Not a great deal of change to the forecast for our region over the
next 7 days as we'll remain under the influence of a stout mid
level ridge. An active storm track through the Central and 
Northern Plains will encourage a persistent southerly flow 
through North Texas and will allow for a little deeper moisture, 
especially east of I-35. For the remainder of this afternoon and 
evening, we'll be watching a weak disturbance move through the 
Southern Plains on the northern periphery of the ridge. A few 
additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop 
across parts of northwest Texas and Oklahoma through the early 
evening. Satellite imagery indicates an expanding cumulus field 
across northwest Texas, but any activity that does develop should 
remain well northwest of our area. There are also some scattered 
showers across southeast Texas which have been spreading northward
through the afternoon. Most of these showers will remain east of 
the region.

Given the slightly better moisture across the east and fairly
strong low level southerly flow for this time of year, we'll
likely see a little more in the way of morning cloud cover on
Sunday, particularly east of I-35. Otherwise, Sunday should
feature mostly sunny skies and continued hot conditions. We'll
continue with the heat advisory through Sunday, although this may
need to be expanded into the early part of next week.

The beginning of the work week looks relatively benign with the
upper ridge still in place, although it will undergo some 
weakening and a gradual shift westward through mid week. As it 
does, a disturbance will move through the southern Plains on 
late Wednesday and should encounter a little better moisture as 
it spreads into North Texas. We'll continue with some low PoPs for
Wednesday night into Thursday as this system moves through. Other
than that low chance for precipitation, the remainder of the week
looks dry with high temperatures back in the upper 90s to near 100
degrees. Model guidance through the end of the week continues to
flatten out the ridge, but there's really no strong signal for a
good moisture intrusion into North Texas or any synoptic features
that would support higher rain chances. Most of the rainfall looks
like it will be farther east into the central Gulf Coast states
through next weekend.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81 101  81 101  81 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Waco                80 100  79 101  78 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Paris               77  96  77  97  77 /   5   0   5   0   5 
Denton              80 101  79 101  79 /   5   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            80  99  79 100  79 /   5   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              81 101  81 101  81 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             79  98  79 102  79 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           79  99  77  98  77 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Temple              78 100  77  99  76 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       78 102  77 101  76 /   0   0   0   0   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$

26/24