468 
FXUS64 KSHV 161726
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1226 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions to prevail across area terminals with the
exception of possible MVFR CIGS/VSBYS across the east Texas
terminals around daybreak. Otherwise, east winds around 5 knots
to become southeast this afternoon. Winds to become southerly and
remain elevated from 5 to 8 knots overnight across east Texas
while diminishing elsewhere. Otherwise, winds around 5 to 8 knots
expected across all sites on Saturday. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 950 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019/ 

UPDATE...
Temperatures steadily climbing across the region this morning on
track to reach the upper 90s by late this afternoon with heat 
index values forecast to approach 105 degrees. With upper ridge
centered across the region, dry conditions to prevail today with
very little precipitation expected. Current forecast is on track,
no update at this time. Will continue to monitor temperature
trends for a potential heat advisory if necessary. /05/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019/ 

SHORT TERM.../Today through Saturday night/

Another hot day expected across the region today as the upper 
level ridge to our west edges back eastward into our region. Most
of the region should remain dry, but can't rule out an isolated
shower or thunderstorm across portions of Deep East Texas and
adjacent west-central Louisiana as short term progs hint at sea 
breeze activity possibly making it up into the southern sections 
of the region. Some of this activity has already developed along 
the TX/LA Gulf Coast this morning and could make it into the 
aforementioned areas as early as late morning. This activity is 
expected to be very isolated in coverage, so only went with slight
chance for POPs through early evening. Otherwise, the main 
concern for today will be hot temperatures. Afternoon high's on 
yesterday reached the mid to upper 90s with Tyler,TX topping out 
at 99 degrees. Expecting a repeat of yesterday temps again today. 
Can't rule out an isolated triple degree reading across East TX 
and possibly NW Louisiana today, but at this time, decided to keep
high's under 100 degrees. Despite the return of S/SE winds today,
dewpoints should mix down into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees 
today, which should keep the region just below Heat Advisory 
criteria, but some brief isolated 105 degree heat index values 
will be possible.

The upper ridge to the west breaks down some tonight into
Saturday. With the return of S/SE winds still in motion, Gulf 
moisture will return back northward into the region, allowing for 
a better sea breeze push northward Saturday afternoon. Attm, 
decided to bring slight POPs as far north as the US Hwy 84 
corridor of Louisiana and East Texas. Also, the increased gulf 
moisture will allow dewpoint temperatures to climb back into the 
lower 70s areawide. With temperatures expected to reach the mid to
upper 90s again, heat index values will likely run closer to 105 
degrees across much of the region. Another Heat Advisory may be 
needed, but will hold off on issuing one at this time. /20/

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday Night/

By late weekend into early next week, the upper level pattern will 
be characterized by a building ridge of high pressure from the TX 
Hill Country into the Four Corners Region of the Country. The 
eastern flank of this ridge will be associated with weak 
disturbances rotating around the ridge axis across our southern and 
eastern most zones. This combining with slightly higher moisture 
profiles will be the necessary ingredients for diurnally driven 
showers and thunderstorms, but nothing warrants a pop any higher 
than low end chance variety attm. 

There are some indications that this ridge will migrate far enough 
to our west that we may be under the influence of a mid level trough 
axis by mid to late week next week which would help to focus 
slightly higher rain chances. The ECMWF is picking up on this a 
little more so than other longer range progs so kept pops in the low 
end chance variety for Thu into Friday for now until medium range 
progs can come into better agreement. 

Temperature wise, we should stay very close to slightly above normal 
for the middle of August outside of rain areas concerning afternoon 
highs and overnight lows so did not stray too far from model blends. 

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  98  78  98 /   0  10  10  20 
MLU  73  97  76  96 /   0  10  10  30 
DEQ  73  97  76  96 /   0  10  10  10 
TXK  75  97  77  96 /   0  10  10  10 
ELD  74  97  75  96 /   0  10  10  20 
TYR  76  97  78  98 /   0  10  10  10 
GGG  76  97  78  98 /   0  10  10  10 
LFK  77  96  77  98 /  10  30  10  20 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/20/13