084 
FXUS63 KLMK 151050
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
650 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(Today and tonight)
Updated at 309 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019

A quiet morning is underway with just a few mid-level clouds. A 
couple of these had been producing a few sprinkles after midnight, 
but have since diminished. We'll see a bit more fog development 
through sunrise, mainly confined to the river valleys. GOES-16 
nighttime microphysics imagery currently showing fog along the 
Cumberland River and in the valleys of eastern KY. 

Broad upper troughing will give way to very subtle upper height 
rises today with benign WNW flow. Skies will start the day mainly 
clear, followed by diurnal SCT cu development at 4-6 kft. Today 
should easily be the nicest day of the next seven. Afternoon highs 
will reach the mid to upper 80s, with upper 80s mainly in urban 
environments. Dry air mix down will drop sfc dewpoints into the low 
to mid 60s this afternoon as well, making it slightly more 
comfortable. Temperatures will drop through the 60s tonight, 
bottoming out in the low to mid 60s. Cirrus blowoff from upstream 
MCS activity will be on the increase west of I-65 Friday morning.

.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday)
Updated at 242 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019

...Hot and Humid Weekend...
...Unsettled weather next week....

Well...zonal flow starts off the medium range and evolves into high 
zonal across the N USA while a herculean ridge juxtapositioned over 
Land of Enchantment into W TX. Models building a 596 m over White 
Sands NM which brings sharp angle for short wave ridge riders next 
week coming into the Upper Ohio Valley.  

Fri-Sat...

MCS should be squarely over the Show Me State into Srn IL and may 
come close to Dubois Co IN over to Ohio County Ky, but quickly 
fade away Fri morning.

With adequate moisture, PWATS of 1.5 inches, and modest CAPE, 
pockets, would not be surprised to see isolated storm development 
somewhere along the I-65 corridor later Fri PM. 

Another MCS Fri Night over I 70 of MO/IL will slide into S MO and 
not be a factor for Sat morning.

After some mid and high deck cloud debris, temps will climb to 
normal late summer readings but not as high as some of the models 
showing mid 90s.  

Weather Tidbit...Saturday is the 50th anniversary of Cat 5 Camille 
slamming into Pass Christian MS bringing mass devastation.  Pressure 
at 900 mb, wind gusts close to 200 mph and storm surge 22-24 ft.  

Sun...

For Sunday, another weak disturbance moves into the Midwest in this 
progressive flow pattern. This will weaken as it approaches but then 
the afternoon there is 3000-4000 j/kg of MUCAPE, decent mid level 
lapse rates, & convective temperature should be reached. Have 
increased POPS to 20% in the afternoon. Coordinated with all the WFO 
neighbors on this. With some mid level dry air, might be a few 
noteworthy wind gusts. 

Temperatures should still typical warm summer day but could be a 
tad cooler if storms develop with a few cooling storms. 

Mon-Wed...

With such a strong SW US ridge, a series of s/waves will progress 
downstream from S over southern Canada and the U.S. northern tier to 
force wavy frontal systems down across the N Ohio Valley.  The lack 
of a cap again with adequate moisture should lead to isolated to 
widely scattered afternoon/evening convection each day. Temps will 
be close to normal depending on convective evolution.  

GFS is much wetter with the pattern, while the ECM is much wetter 
across SE US with tropical moisture influx. Based on the Euro and to 
some degree GFS will focus much of the unsettled PM weather across 
the Ern CWA with tropical weak low moving north from GLFMEX. The ECM 
seems way too aggressive with this feature.  

Bottom line: 

Most days will be dry...but will feature Isol to scattered PM storms 
- given ample boundary layer instability and weak upper troughing. 
Those who do get do a storm will likely get a quick deluge with 
PWATS of 1.5-1.6 inches.

&&

.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 650 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019

VFR weather is likely through the vast majority of this TAF period. 
There could be some brief fog Friday morning. Today will be a nice 
day with SCT cu developing after 16z. Winds are currently light or 
calm and will increase to 6-10 kts out of the WNW late morning 
through sunset. Skies will go mainly clear this evening into 
tonight, before high clouds begin spreading in from the west around 
daybreak Friday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...EBW
Long Term...JDG
Aviation...EBW