272 
FXUS62 KJAX 121904
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
304 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/... 
Scattered showers and t-storms early this afternoon likely to 
become more numerous interior areas of northeast FL by late 
afternoon, with somewhat lesser coverage interior e GA, before 
slowly diminishing during the night. Heat advisory continues 
until 6pm for high heat index values. Elevated dew points will 
keep low temperatures up in the mid 70s inland, upper 70s coast.

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Wednesday night/...
Strong upper ridge aloft will extend eastward from high center over 
wrn TX across the Gulf Coast states to our forecast area Tuesday 
into early Wednesday before weakening over our area late Wednesday
and Wednesday night. Weak surface trough over s-ctrl GA and sea 
breezes will be focus for afternoon and evening convection each 
day, although a bit more scattered in nature compared to prior 
days with more ridgging over the area. Better coverage anticipated
to be over our southern counties than further north. Hot and humid 
weather continues with high temperatures in the mid 90s inland, 
around 90 coast each afternoon with peak heat index values of 
105-110. Could see more heat advisories issued, especially across 
se GA. Elevated low temperatures both nights due to high dew 
points...mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/...
With westerlies well to the N this period, only some weak upper 
troughing over our area, which combined with sea breezes and weak
surface trough over s-ctrl GA will promote a stormy period with 
numerous showers and storms each afternoon/evening across much of 
forecast area. Near normal high temperatures around 90 degrees are
expected through the period, with slightly above normal low 
temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.

&&
 
.AVIATION...Convection is firing along the west coast sea breeze
and should push northeast toward I-75. As storms are already in 
the vicinity of Gainesville things there appear to be on track and
with sea breeze convergence over that part of the state. The east
coast sea breeze will push far enough inland to keep the storms 
pinned west of the other airfields so will maintain VCTS for them.

&&

.MARINE...High pressure will remain well east of the waters, with
surface trough of low pressure over central GA, which will
maintain south to southwest winds across the waters. Weak pressure
gradient gradient across the waters will lead to 5-10 kt winds
through Tuesday night. Some increase in pressure gradient will
support 10-15 kt winds across the waters during the remainder of
the week. Seas will remain in the 2-4 ft range.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk this afternoon and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  96  76  96 /  20  20  10  50 
SSI  78  91  79  93 /  10  10   0  30 
JAX  76  93  76  95 /  20  30  20  40 
SGJ  76  90  76  91 /  20  30  20  40 
GNV  76  93  76  91 /  70  60  30  60 
OCF  76  92  75  90 /  60  70  30  60 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Bradford-
     Central Marion-Clay-Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal 
     Nassau-Coastal St. Johns-Eastern Alachua-Eastern Marion-
     Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Duval-Inland Flagler-Inland 
     Nassau-Inland St. Johns-Northern Columbia-Putnam-Southern 
     Columbia-Suwannee-Union-Western Alachua-Western Marion.

GA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for Appling-Atkinson-
     Bacon-Brantley-Clinch-Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn-Coffee-
     Echols-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Northeastern 
     Charlton-Northern Ware-Pierce-Southern Ware-Wayne-Western 
     Charlton.

AM...None.
&&

$$

Wolf/Sandrik