268 
FXUS64 KMAF 081734
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1234 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
A few sites are still light and variable from the morning but 
these should all become S to SE and perhaps a little gusty during
the afternoon. Most locations wind will drop somewhat after 
sunset but may stay up at FST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...

The monotonous forecast continues. Look for scorching heat 
followed by a roasting, with a little searing, and a side of 
blistering over the next week. The upper ridge is expected to set 
up camp over Texas into early next week. You probably already 
know, but 100's are still expected every day. We've had quite a 
few 100 degree days this year so below you will find a climate 
section detailing a few stats. 

A few storms were able to develop in the heat yesterday across SE
NM and the higher terrain of W TX. This will continue to be the 
case as these locations will stay on the fringe of the upper high 
closer to monsoonal moisture. 

I hate to even mention it because it's a week away and I might
jinx it, but models are showing the upper ridge breaking down a
bit and temperatures falling below 100.

CLIMATE...

We typically see 16 days where the temperature reaches 100 or
above at Midland International. We have already had 22 days of 100
or above so far this year. The last time we had a summer of less 
than 20 100 degree days was 2007 at 2 days.

Here are the number of 100 degree days since 2010 (all above our
average):

2019 - 22 (so far)
2018 - 36
2017 - 24
2016 - 35
2015 - 29
2014 - 20
2013 - 23
2012 - 34
2011 - 65 (record for the most)
2010 - 21

If the forecast pans out, the number of 100's will near 30 days by
next week. This is where I would place the sad face emoji.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     79 102  79 103 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                       75 101  75 100 /  10  10  30  10 
Dryden                         77 105  77 103 /   0  10   0  10 
Fort Stockton                  76 102  76 101 /  10  10  10  10 
Guadalupe Pass                 73  94  71  92 /  20  20  40  20 
Hobbs                          74 100  74 100 /  10  10  20  10 
Marfa                          67  97  66  94 /  20  20  30  20 
Midland Intl Airport           78 103  77 102 /   0   0  10   0 
Odessa                         78 102  78 102 /   0   0  10   0 
Wink                           78 106  78 104 /  10  10  10  10 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$