387 
FXUS64 KMAF 081106
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
606 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Little change from the previous TAF issuance. Satellite shows 
there are mid/high clouds this morning which according to 
forecast sounding will decrease through the day. High resolution 
models are not very optimistic that SHRA/TSRA will develop near 
CNM, staying mostly to the w. Otherwise winds will increase above 
12kts at MAF, less so other sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...

The monotonous forecast continues. Look for scorching heat 
followed by a roasting, with a little searing, and a side of 
blistering over the next week. The upper ridge is expected to set 
up camp over Texas into early next week. You probably already 
know, but 100's are still expected every day. We've had quite a 
few 100 degree days this year so below you will find a climate 
section detailing a few stats. 

A few storms were able to develop in the heat yesterday across SE
NM and the higher terrain of W TX. This will continue to be the 
case as these locations will stay on the fringe of the upper high 
closer to monsoonal moisture. 

I hate to even mention it because it's a week away and I might
jinx it, but models are showing the upper ridge breaking down a
bit and temperatures falling below 100.

CLIMATE...

We typically see 16 days where the temperature reaches 100 or
above at Midland International. We have already had 22 days of 100
or above so far this year. The last time we had a summer of less 
than 20 100 degree days was 2007 at 2 days.

Here are the number of 100 degree days since 2010 (all above our
average):

2019 - 22 (so far)
2018 - 36
2017 - 24
2016 - 35
2015 - 29
2014 - 20
2013 - 23
2012 - 34
2011 - 65 (record for the most)
2010 - 21

If the forecast pans out, the number of 100's will near 30 days by
next week. This is where I would place the sad face emoji.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                    102  79 102  79 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                      102  75 101  75 /  10  10  10  30 
Dryden                        104  77 105  77 /  10   0  10   0 
Fort Stockton                 101  76 102  76 /  10  10  10  10 
Guadalupe Pass                 95  73  94  71 /  20  20  20  40 
Hobbs                         102  74 100  74 /  10  10  10  20 
Marfa                          96  67  97  66 /  20  20  20  30 
Midland Intl Airport          102  78 103  77 /   0   0   0  10 
Odessa                        101  78 102  78 /   0   0   0  10 
Wink                          105  78 106  78 /  10  10  10  10 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$