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356 FXUS62 KFFC 080801 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 401 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019 .SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/... A near stationary frontal boundary remains across southern TN and W NC. A surface trough does extend into central portions of the CWFA, ahead of the stalled boundary. In the mid levels, a broad trough is situated off the SE coast with the SE US mostly in NW flow aloft. The front/trough will slowly push a little southward today. Not confident on exactly how far south, the models seem to be a little aggressive having the boundary settle across southern GA. Would not be surprised to see the front/trough settle around or just north of the Interstate 20 corridor. Wherever the front/trough decides to settle, it should become stationary. WV imagery shows NW flow aloft across much of the SE. NW flow aloft will continue through the short term forecast period. One shortwave is noted across NE Mississippi and will drop SE in the flow today. Models keep most of the energy associated with this shortwave to the west of GA, but it could clip the SW corner of the CWFA. Pops should still be fairly limited today. The highest values will be along the SW corner of the CWFA, south of the front/trough and closest to the mid level shortwave energy moving within the flow aloft. Even then, only isold/sct coverage is anticipated. Severe weather is not anticipated, but a strong storm cannot be ruled out. Do think pop chances will taper off after the loss of heating, but will keep pops into the early morning. This seems reasonable, as storms have continued the last two days until after midnight. Pops will be fairly similar on Friday, but the SCT coverage should extend a little further east. NListemaa .LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/... Through the long term period, the high-amplitude ridge that has been positioned over the four corners region will continue to deamplify and move eastward over the southern plains. By the end of the extended period, this upper-level high pressure will elongated longitudinally and engulf most of the southern U.S. This will push the subtropical jet stream poleward, and increase temperatures to around 3-9 degrees above normal, with upper 80s and low 90s in northern Georgia and mid to upper 90s in central Georgia. Monsoonal moisture will also continue moving into the region from the four corners and southern plains. PWATs over 2" could enter the area by Friday evening, with Gulf moisture continuing to move into the southeast from the SSW near-surface winds linked to the Bermuda High in the Atlantic. Some relief may come through the weekend as a surface high pressure moving across the midwest attempts to push into the southern Appalachian states. Discrepancies continue going into the beginning of next week. ECMWF continues to indicate the suppression of widespread precipitation, but the GFS still indicates an enhanced corridor of moisture with several possible MCSs moving within the flow to the southeastern CONUS in the beginning of next week. So for now we're still expecting isolated to scattered chances for thunderstorms with decreasing trends compared to earlier in the week. Thiem && .AVIATION... 06Z Update... SCT-BKN050 during peak heating this afternoon, otherwise VFR. Winds will remain on the west side starting out more SW overnight and turning more NW by 12Z. Speeds should be at or right below 10kt. Pops are too low to mention at this time with VCSH sufficing. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High confidence all elements. NListemaa && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 95 72 93 73 / 20 10 20 20 Atlanta 93 75 91 74 / 20 10 30 30 Blairsville 85 65 84 66 / 20 10 30 30 Cartersville 92 72 89 72 / 20 10 30 30 Columbus 96 75 94 76 / 30 20 30 30 Gainesville 91 72 89 72 / 20 10 20 20 Macon 96 74 95 75 / 30 20 30 30 Rome 93 72 90 73 / 20 10 30 30 Peachtree City 93 73 92 73 / 20 10 30 30 Vidalia 98 75 97 76 / 30 20 30 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...NListemaa LONG TERM....Thiem AVIATION...NListemaa