850 
FXUS65 KABQ 060606 AAC
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1206 AM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Isolated showers and thunderstorms persist near the Colorado border 
in the vicinity of Chama late tonight. These should slowly dissipate
through the morning hours. High clouds will continue to increase 
from the south as a moisture surges northward from a complex in 
Mexico. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop near 
or shortly after 18Z across the higher terrain. A noticeable uptick 
in storm coverage is expected today over yesterday and very little 
storm motion is expected. Brief MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible in 
the strongest storms. All terminals will have a chance at being 
impacted, except for KROW. Storm coverage and intensity will decrease
by 06Z Wed.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...452 PM MDT Mon Aug 5 2019...
.UPDATE...
Quick update to PoPs for this evening, dropping overall chances as 
mid-level dry air wrapping into northwestern NM and subsidence 
beneath the upper high has put a damper on storm development over 
the northwestern high terrain. Also updated to take into account 
lingering showers/storms along a bdry that has been picked up by the 
RAP pushing into into east-central NM tonight.

24/RJH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT Mon Aug 5 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
An active week of afternoon thunderstorms will continue for western
and northern New Mexico after a relative down day today and this
evening. The best storm coverage for Tuesday will focus over/along
the western high terrain, shifting to the northern mountains
Wednesday. Some storms Wednesday over the northern mountains will
work their way into the northeastern plains by the evening. The upper
high jogs into Texas to end the week allowing for a better tap of
monsoon moisture into western and central New Mexico favoring more
afternoon storms for western, central, and northern New Mexico. The
southeastern plains will be relatively quiet in terms of storm 
activity to end the week. Temperatures will remain near to above 
normal through the forecast period with Tuesday and Wednesday likely 
seeing a couple of 100s across the eastern plains. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...Mid-level water vapor is showing some drier mid-level air
wrapping around the northwestern periphery of the high into
northwestern NM today, putting a damper on any thunderstorm
development there so far. Convection is developing over the 
southwest mountains and central mountain chain with storm motions 
generally toward the southeast/east. Lingering storms late into the 
overnight period will favor south-central portions of the CWA. 

Tuesday/Wednesday...Models continue to be in good agreement with
nudging the upper high center back over NM with a weak perturbation
along the western side of the high on Tue. This will help increase
storm coverage over the western high terrain and continental divide.
Storm coverage across the east will remain relatively low. Storm
motions, with little to no steering flow, will return to be slow and
erratic. Locally heavy rainfall and the threat for flash flooding
will return with any slow moving efficient rain producer across the
west Tuesday. The upper high center moves little Wednesday with the
aforementioned perturbation rotation around the high into the 
northern mountains and into CO. Thus the highest coverage of storms 
will shift to the northern mountains with storm motions increasing a 
bit toward the east into northeastern NM Wednesday evening. 

Late Week/Weekend...PWATs will remain 1-2 std deviations above
climatological normals ranging from 1.00"-1.20" at KABQ. Meanwhile,
both the GFS and ECMWF have continued to show an eastward progression
of the upper high into TX to end the week. This will allow a more
typical monsoon plume of moisture to advect northward into western
and central NM during this time keeping increased thunderstorm
activity going each day there. Storm motions also increase a bit from
S to N across the west, and more SW to NE or W to E over northern NM.
Daily trends will continue to favor the western and northern high
terrain for the first round of afternoon thunderstorms with lower
valley locations of western and central NM as well as the
northeastern plains likely receiving the second round late in the day
and evening. Unfortunately this pattern doesn't favor robust 
thunderstorm activity for southeastern portions of the state. Looking
even longer, the GFS is hinting at the upper high flattening and 
more of a zonal flow pattern setting up over the northern CONUS with 
drier air pushing into western NM for next week or mid-August. 

24/RJH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The high moisture content of the atmosphere remains intact as high 
pressure aloft continues to orbit NM, yielding a typical monsoon 
pattern for early August. This week, hot and seasonable temperatures 
will be complemented by afternoon humidity typically falling to 25 
to 45 percent, but good to excellent humidity recovery is expected 
during the overnight periods. Otherwise the main fire weather 
concerns will be dependent on scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms that will initiate over the southwestern to west 
central and northern mountains of the state during the afternoons. 
Storms will attempt to fill into adjacent lower elevations and 
valleys each evening, but very low rain chances will persist for far 
northwestern and far east central New Mexico. Storms will be slow-
moving and capable of producing heavy downpours with burn scar 
flooding and gusty outflow winds threatening, as well as the 
occasional new lightning ignition from strikes that occur away from 
main precipitation cores. 

52 

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$