481 
FXUS61 KCLE 051034
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
634 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough will develop over the eastern portions of the local 
area today and then move east this evening. A weak low pressure 
system and trailing trough will move south across the area Tuesday. 
A ridge of high pressure will build northeast into the area 
Wednesday night. A cold front will move southeast across the area 
Thursday. High pressure will build southeast through the western 
Great Lakes over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No major changes with this update. There is some very light fog
down near Youngstown that should burn off with sunrise this
morning.

Previous Discussion...

Surface cold front moved south of the area and weakened further as 
air mass behind the front modified.  An upper level shortwave trough 
will move east through the mean flow this afternoon with a surface 
trough. Some residual moisture still lingers across the southeast at 
this time as a result of the dying cold front.  As the upper level 
and surface features move through the eastern portions of the 
forecast area this afternoon, there will be a threat for some 
isolated or scattered convection that will develop.  Surface winds 
will be fairly light in the weak gradient and lake breeze will 
develop late this morning into the afternoon.  The lake breeze front 
will be a focusing mechanism as well for the development of 
convection this afternoon.  Will be increasing POPs a tad and go 
with a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the southeast today. 
Otherwise, the rest of the area is expected to remain dry through 
the day; especially along the lake shore where lake shadow will be 
the influence.

A weak area of low pressure is expected to move northeast along a 
trough during the day tomorrow.  The combination of the two features 
starting to affect the local area tonight will bring a better chance 
for showers and thunderstorms late tonight into Tuesday.  Will 
continue with POPs for this activity tomorrow with a better chance 
in the afternoon with the arrival of the surface low pressure 
system.

Temperatures were way under done yesterday by about 4 to 5 degrees 
likely due to the cold front air mass quickly modifying over the 
area and warming.  Models are suggesting some warm air pushing back 
into the area and 1000 to 500 mb thickness values increasing to 570 
by this afternoon.  Models have consistently been too cold over the 
last month or so, so will bump max temperatures up by 4 to 5 degrees 
across the area. Overnight lows will be a degree or two warmer than 
guidance and with rain moving into the area Tuesday, will only 
increase temperatures by a degree or two.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A fairly strong shortwave will move across the area on Tuesday night 
accompanied by a weak area of low pressure at the surface. Expecting 
to see showers and thunderstorms continue into Tuesday night ahead 
of this feature, especially across eastern portions of the area. 
Sufficient moisture and instability will linger into Wednesday with 
more energy moving through the northwest flow aloft and kicking off 
additional convection during the afternoon. Temperatures will be 
limited by the coverage of rain and clouds in the east on Wednesday 
with highs peaking in the lower to mid 80s. On Wednesday night we 
will see the deeper moisture start to depart which will allow for 
decreasing pops for the overnight hours. 

A strong upper level trough with a closed low over Ontario will 
reach the Upper Great Lakes on Wednesday night then swing east 
across the Great Lakes on Thursday. Breezy southwest flow with warm 
advection will be in place on Thursday ahead of a cold front that 
will push south across the area Thursday night. Scattered showers 
and thunderstorms are expected with the front Thursday afternoon 
before we finally see a more stable airmass arrive behind the front 
Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will arrive behind the front on Friday with near to 
slightly below normal temperatures. At this time it looks like the 
area will be dry through the weekend with dewpoints in the 50s. We 
will have to watch for energy moving through the northwest flow 
aloft that could try to kick off a shower or thunderstorm but 
moisture looks like the limiting factor at this time. The lower 
humidity and temperatures will make for a comfortable stretch of 
weather.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
A weak trough of low pressure will move east across the eastern
portions of the forecast area and will be the focus for the
possibility for some scattered showers and thunderstorms. The
lake breeze will also aid in the development of the
precipitation threat as well. Otherwise, rest of the forecast
area should be dry through the day today into tonight. Winds
should be light 5 to 8 knots or less and calm tonight. Lake
breeze will affect Cleveland and Erie from the north-northwest
today.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible the remainder of Tuesday through 
Thursday morning with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake breezes with onshore flow expected to develop this afternoon 
with otherwise light winds on Lake Erie today. Waves will generally 
be 1 foot or less. Southwest winds of 5-15 knots will develop on 
Tuesday ahead of a trough with thunderstorms disrupting the flow 
later Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday. Southwest flow of 10-15 
knots expected again on Thursday shifting onshore with the passage 
of a cold front Thursday night. Waves of 2-3 feet can be expected 
Thursday afternoon and night with the front.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Lombardy
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...KEC