104 
FXUS63 KLSX 032328
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
628 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Sunday Night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

The atmosphere across central and eastern Missouri as well as 
southwest Illinois has become unstable this afternoon with latest 
objective analysis showing uncapped MLCAPES of 500-1000+ J/kg. 
Forcing remains weak however with only a weak mid-level shortwave 
moving southeast across the area and no level convergence to 
speak of. There as been a few showers develop in the last few 
hours across east central and southeast Missouri in the axis of 
instability. Will maintain isolated showers and thunderstorms in 
the forecast through sunset.

Then expect dry conditions across the area through Sunday night. 
NAM/GFS are in good agreement that an upper ridge that is an 
extension of the high centered over southwest CONUS will rotate 
slowly southeast from the Upper Midwest into Missouri/Illinois by
Sunday night. This will keep subsidence and consequently dry 
weather over the area the next 36 hours. A surface ridge will 
remain over the area keeping winds light. Temperatures are 
expected to remain near normal with 850mb temperatures staying 
around 15C.

Britt

.LONG TERM...  (Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

Haven't changed next week's forecast too much as upper flow over 
Missouri and Illinois will primarily be dominated by the northwesterly
flow. It still looks like Monday will be mainly dry as there will
be an expansive surface high moving across the Midwest at the 
same time a shortwave ridge will be moving across the area. 
Deterministic models and GEFS mean are still in reasonable 
agreement that there will be two shortwave troughs and attendant 
cold fronts moving through this flow during the forecast period, 
one on Tuesday and one Thursday into Friday that will bring a 
chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region.

Temperatures next week will be near normal based on GEFS mean 
temperatures and deterministic global 850mb temperature forecasts 
around 15C.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

Isolated showers and thunderstorms should stay south of the
terminals and dissipate early this evening. Dry/VFR conditions are
forecast through Sunday afternoon with a mostly clear sky and
light northeast winds.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: 

Dry/VFR conditions are forecast through Sunday evening under a
mostly clear sky with a light wind out of the northeast.


Gosselin


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX