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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLSX Product Timestamp: 2019-08-02 23:17 UTC
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532 FXUS63 KLSX 022317 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 617 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 The weather pattern has changed very little in the past 24 hours...and little change is forecast in the next 24 hours. A strong upper level ridge of high pressure is dominating the weather over the western 1/2 of the CONUS with a trough over the east. The mid Mississippi Valley is sandwiched in between these two features with northwest flow aloft and high pressure at the surface over the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest. Clockwise flow around the high continues relatively cool and dry air (for August) over the forecast area. Expect dry weather to continue tonight and tomorrow morning...but there could be some isolated diurnal convection Saturday afternoon...primarily across southeast Missouri. Temperatures tonight and Saturday just a bit warmer than today's with lows in the 60s and highs in the mid and upper 80s. Carney .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Next Friday) Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 Medium range guidance shows the high amplitude blocky pattern staying in place through next week, with just a slight shift eastward toward the Thursday-Friday time frame. The GFS and ECMWF continue to show a shortwave diving through the Mississippi Valley in the northwest flow aloft Tuesday into Wednesday. This will bring much of the the area our next substantial chance for rain. Current ensemble guidance PoPs are in the 20-30% range, and this may be a tad low, but timing a shortwave 4-5 days out in northwest flow is like trying to say exactly when you're going to sneeze about 2 hours in advance. I stuck with the slight chance/low chance PoPs but we can raise them later as confidence increases. The shortwave should amplify the eastern trough allowing another weak cold front to pass through the mid Mississippi Valley Thursday. The warmest temperatures of the week should be Sunday through Tuesday in the 85 to 90 degree range, then increasing clouds and potentially some precip should drop temps back a few degrees mainly in the mid 80s. Carney && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening) Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019 VFR conditions, dry weather, and light NE-E surface winds will prevail at the TAF sites through the valid period. Patchy fog is possible near rivers, but probabilities look too low and should be very brief in occurrence if it does happen. Likewise, there are low probs for thunderstorms but it is south of the MO river and not at the terminals at this time. TES && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX