079 
FXUS62 KMLB 011922
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
322 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

...Wet Start to August Persists Into the Weekend...

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of This Afternoon...Scattered to numerous showers and storms
will move to toward the W-NW over the region. With diffluence
aloft and relatively cool temps at 500 mb, still expecting a few
strong to marginally severe storms along boundary collisions late
this afternoon over the interior sections. 

Tonight...Showers and storms will linger well into the evening
hours with highest coverage western interior sections. The area of
disturbed weather approaching from the southeast will increase
chances of showers and a few storms moving onshore in the late
night hours, with the highest coverage and potential for some
locally heavy rain amounts along the Treasure Coast. Overnight 
mins generally in the mid 70s.

Friday...Trough axis will drift northwest over FL Straits and
toward SE FL coast, with increasing southeast flow and deepening 
moisture over the region as it does so. Troffing aloft over the 
Gulf of Mexico will aid in lift over the region and help lead to 
high coverage of showers with embedded thunderstorms. Some locally
heavy rainfall will again be possible, especially across the 
southern coastal sections, with rainfall amounts up to 2-3 inches 
with a few locally higher amounts possible. Cloud cover and early 
day rainfall expected to hold max temps in the mid 80s.

Previous extended forecast discussion follows below... 
Saturday-Sunday...High rain chances will continue through the 
weekend with low level SSW winds and deep moisture on Saturday 
with mid level winds from the SW to the east of the mid level low 
near the north central Gulf coast. This will continue a favorable 
regime for locally heavy rainfall and numerous showers and storms 
with PWATs in the 2.0-2.3 inch range. By Sunday, the mid level 
trough to the west begins to lift but deep southwest flow and 
lingering tropical moisture across the central/srn peninsula will 
lead to high shower/storm chances from 50-60 percent nrn zones to 
60-70 percent across the south. Highs in the upper 80s to around 
90 through the weekend. 

Monday-Thursday...Influence from the mid level trough near the 
nrn gulf coast will linger into Monday with low level southwest 
flow and high moisture levels so have kept afternoon shower/storm 
chances in the likely range. The low level flow will become more 
southerly into mid week with the trough starting to lift into the 
southeast states and the mid level ridge strengthening east of 
Florida. This should gradually lessen shower/storm coverage to the
scattered range by Wed and Thu with higher coverage over the 
interior each afternoon and lessening precip chances along the 
immediate Treasure Coast as the east coast sea breeze moves inland
each afternoon. Highs will return to typical summer norms around 
90 to the lower 90s with lows in the 70s. 

&&

.AVIATION...Deep tropical moisture associated with a weak wave will 
continue to overspread the area tonight into tomorrow leading to a 
wetter pattern across the area. Periods of passing showers and 
storms will be possible over the next 24 hours, producing tempo 
MVFR/IFR conditions through this afternoon and into tonight. Model 
guidance then expecting more predominant IFR/MVFR conditions in 
lower cigs and increasing shower and thunderstorm activity into 
Friday. 

&&

.MARINE...

Through Tonight...Scattered showers and a few storms will move 
across the coastal waters late afternoon into this evening. After
this activity wanes, there will be an increase in activity again
during the overnight hours as the disturbed area/trough approaches
from the southeast. The highest coverage of these showers and
storms will extend southward from Seabastian Inlet. 

Friday-Saturday...Onshore winds will increase to 10-15 knots as
thedisturbance/trough increases shower and storm coverage across
the waters. Seas will build gradually to 3 ft near shore and up 
to 4 ft well offshore.

Sunday-Monday...Winds will become S-SW into early next week with 
seas gradually diminishing to 2-3 ft. Numerous showers and storms 
across the Atlantic waters Sunday will become scattered into the 
day on Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Levels on the St Johns River near Astor will remain
near Action Stage into the weekend. Levels may briefly oscillate a
little above or below 2 feet, but not expecting any significant
fall over the next few days. At this time, reaching Minor Flood
Stage is not anticipated, but will continue to closely monitor. 
 
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  84  74  88 /  30  70  60  70 
MCO  73  85  74  90 /  40  70  40  70 
MLB  75  85  75  89 /  50  70  60  80 
VRB  75  85  75  89 /  50  80  60  80 
LEE  73  85  73  90 /  30  70  40  70 
SFB  72  85  73  90 /  30  70  50  70 
ORL  73  85  74  90 /  30  70  50  70 
FPR  75  86  75  89 /  50  80  60  80 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Glitto/Combs/Weitlich/Sedlock