147 
FXUS65 KBOU 110950
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
350 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2019

A small moisture tongue moved over areas east of I-25 this 
morning increasing dew points to the mid to upper 50s. This
moisture is rather shallow and should mix out quickly this morning
with the aid of downslope winds and strong solar radiation. Models
indicate the moisture will not fully mix out east of line from 
Limon to Akron as a weak dryline will develop during the 
afternoon. Convergence will be weak along this dryline but it may 
be just enough to create a few showers and storms. I added POPs 
mainly in Washington and Lincoln Counties so that the forecast 
will mention a slight chance of afternoon storms. Elsewhere, 
isolated showers and storms will develop mainly over the mountains
and foothills. Inverted V soundings and large downdraft CAPE 
values indicate that these showers and storms will produce gusty 
winds up to 40-45 mph. Any showers and storms should dissipate
shortly after sunset. 

High temperatures will be about 5 degrees above normal. Some 
areas in the South Platte River Valley near the Nebraska border 
may reach 100 degrees. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2019

A ridge of high pressure will prevail over Colorado through the 
period. Friday through Monday the center 500 mb, 594 dam ridge is 
expected to stick around southeastern CO/northeastern New Mexico. 
This will allow for a weak southwesterly flow aloft to be over the 
forecast area which will advect subtropical moisture from the Desert 
Southwest into the region. GFS/NAM12 Layer Precipitable Water values 
increase through the period. In the mountains, PW values will be 
around 0.50 in. on Friday afternoon, then around 0.80 in. Sunday 
afternoon. Similarly across the northeast plains, 0.80-1.0 inch on 
Friday, increasing to 1.1-1.2 inches over the weekend. The weak 
flow aloft will increase the risk of flooding as well. Greater 
thunderstorm coverage is forecast by the weekend in addition to an
increasing threat of heavy rainfall. Wet microburst thunderstorms
the main concern, a few of which could produce marginal severe 
threat with gusts in the 50-60 mph range in addition to a 
localized flood risk. This already addressed in the previous 
package so overall no significant adjustments to the grids. This 
unsettled pattern will continue into early next week. By Wednesday
however, the ridge is expected become stretched more west to east
which could produce a drier westerly flow in the mid levels and 
pinch off the subtropical moisture plume. Consequently, less 
thunderstorm coverage will be possible by midweek. With the ridge 
expected to remain over the region, high temperatures will be 
locked in the lower to mid 90s across the urban corridor and 
northeast plains through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 250 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2019

VFR conditions will continue through Thursday night. Drainage 
flow will continue into the mid morning hours. Light winds will 
shift out of the northeast around midday. A few isolated showers 
and storms are possible over the mountains this afternoon. It is 
possible that these produce gusty winds that reach one of the 
airports but the chances remain rather small due to the limited 
extent of these storms. Winds return to drainage overnight. 

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Danielson
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Danielson