281 
FXUS63 KFGF 091206
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
706 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 701 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

Next surge of moisture moving north as anticipated with rain
likely overspreading most of the area by 15z or so. Dry slot
will work into southwestern fcst area this aftn and this is when
the better chc of t-storms will be. If it can heat up should get
enough cape to generate risk of strong storms. &&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

The last of the rain is exiting the eastern fcst area. Today
attention will turn to precip chances/timing as sfc low moves
north into central ND this afternoon and then mets up with upper
low moving in from the west. The two will become pretty stacked
over north central ND tonight. Southerly flow of moisture will
keep periodic showers and t-storms over the red river valley and
NW/WC MN thru the day. While more steadier rain arrives in the
Devils Lake basin north of the sfc low. Timing these showers and
t-storms over the RRV is tricky, but NSSL WRF prog seems to be
doing a reasonably good job so far. Next wave of precip in E SD is
moving slowly north and likely to spread into the RRV thru the
morning...then spread east some this aftn. Dry slot will work into
the SW fcst area as upper low moves east and meets up with sfc low
which by mid aftn will be in central ND. Dry slot will spread
north/east this evening/tonight bringing a break in activity to
all but the DVL basin which will see more steadier rain closer to
the upper low.  

As for t-storm intensity. Moist environment in place and not a lot
of shear much of the day until dry punch begins to move into the
RRV mid to late aftn. If there can be enough heating to 80 or low
80s in the southern RRV it will generate sufficient instability in
the 2500-3000 j/kg range so that the risk of a band of strong to
severe storms will be possible as dry slot works east/northeast.

Position of the developing upper low in central/north central ND
later today puts SE ND into the RRV in a favorable location for
low topped supercells, if we can get some sfc heating. SPC has
area in marginal risk, mainly for hail as temps cool aloft.

PWATS remain high..but precip movement will be enough to avoid
excessive rains at any one point for a long period.  

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

Wednesday will see the sfc low/upper low move east and north winds
to increase during the day to 15-30 mph with higher gusts in E
ND/RRV. Rain will end in NE ND in the morning and in the aftn in 
NW MN. 

Rest of the week into the weekend will feature a westerly or
west-northwest flow aloft as a 500mb ridge is over the the 
4-corners region. This pattern will bring several 500 mb short
waves through, with tracks thru southern Canada. These short waves
combined with a rather unstable enviornment and sufficent low
level moisture to bring periodic chances for t-storms. One wave is
due later Thursday and next Monday. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 701 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2019

Aviation likely to be quite variable today with areas of rain
moving up and mix of MVFR and VFR cigs thru the day. Cigs may
become more widespread IFR overnight in northern fcst area. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle