459 
FXUS62 KJAX 070817
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
417 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

.NEAR TERM (Through Tonight)...

Weakened mid level trough will be across the ern zones today with 
high pressure ridges over the wrn Atlantic and over the northwest
Gulf of Mexico. Guidance shows the trough will push east of the area
late this afternoon with the deeper moisture with PWAT of 2.4 
inches moving off the northeast FL coast. Still, we are looking 
at elevated moisture with progs showing values of 2.2 inches over 
northeast FL and about 1.9 inches over southeast GA this aftn. 
Broad sfc trough will persist over the southeast states and over 
our region again today yielding light southwest to south flow near
10 mph. Combination of vorticity aloft and sea breeze boundaries,
and sfc troughing should promote elevated rain chances today but 
not as high as Saturday. Best chances will be posted over the 
southeast zones around 60 percent and 40-50 chance range over 
southeast GA, where weaker mid level forcing and drying conditions
aloft are expected later in the day. Highs today upwards of mid 
90s over southeast GA and lower 90s/90 deg over northeast FL. 
Given this, heat indices are higher today topping out near 105 
over southeast GA. The main convective impacts will be locally 
heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Dry air in mid levels over 
southeast GA expected to lead to better potential of stronger 
downbursts if strong storms develop there in the aftn and early 
evening. 

Tonight, scattered showers and storms expected in the evening, then
may continue overnight at mainly isolated coverage for the 
southwest zones as showers and some storms may move into the FL 
Big Bend area and affect areas near I-75 toward early morning. 
Patchy fog and some low clouds possible overnight but too
uncertain on including into the forecast at this time. Lows in 
the lower to mid 70s are forecast.

.SHORT TERM /Monday and Tuesday/...

Pattern of high chances of convection will continue into the 
start of the week, with a majority of storms and showers expected 
to develop with diurnal heating but isolated development 
occurring overnight and in the early morning hours can not be 
discounted. Predominantly southwesterly flow will result in storms
developing out of the west and progressing eastward throughout 
the day, with a potential for locally heavy rainfall in some 
areas. High temperatures for the beginning of next week will be in
the lower 90s, with overnight lows in the mid to lower 70s for 
inland areas in the upper 70s along the coast.

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...

The continuing trend of diurnally developing showers and storms will
carry over into the weekend, with a slight interruption to the 
southwesterly flow as a mid-level rotational axis stalls over the 
region, with the region of high pressure remaining off to the 
east. Long range models are showing an area of low pressure 
developing over the Gulf of Mexico, but are in disagreement with 
how it will progress in the next coming weekend. Max temps will be
in the upper 80s and lower 90s through into the weekend, with 
overnight low temperatures ranging between the mid to lower 70s 
and in the upper 70s along coastlines.

&&

.AVIATION...

Generally VFR conditions through early morning but low clouds
around 1-2 kft and some patchy MVFR mist may affect TAFs due to 
the recent rainfall and high moisture content. Scattered to 
numerous showers and storms expected again so will be going with 
at least VCTS for the aftn and may trend to TEMPO groups by the 
12z TAF issuance. Gusty winds and MVFR/IFR vsby expected in 
storms. Showers and storm activity will wind down in the evening 
hours, and anticipate a low chance of low clouds and possible 
patchy fog for early Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...

Coastal waters will continue to see south to southwest winds of 
about 10-15 kt today and expect wind speeds to trend upwards a 
bit for tonight into mid week as local pressure gradient tightens
between an area of low pressure dropping south from SC and the 
Bermuda high pressure over the wern Atlantic. By late Tuesday, 
broad sfc low pressure across north FL will drift off to the west 
and southwest Wed and Thu, shifting local winds to the southeast 
and south at 10-15 kt and gusty, occasional higher at 15-20 kt. 
Seas 2-4 ft today but trend up tonight, as winds increase. General
trend is for increased wave energy over the next several days but
combined seas will be variable depending on temporary wind 
increases. 

Rip Currents: Low risk to a low-end moderate risk for area beaches
again today through Monday, with weak east swells and wind waves 
anticipated. Trend for the week may be for increased rip current 
potential as wave energy spectrum looks stronger.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  74  93  75 /  40  30  60  40 
SSI  90  77  92  78 /  60  30  40  40 
JAX  91  76  94  76 /  60  30  60  60 
SGJ  88  75  90  76 /  70  30  60  50 
GNV  90  74  92  75 /  60  30  70  50 
OCF  88  74  91  75 /  60  30  60  40 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Shashy/Corless