613 
FXUS63 KMQT 070429
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1229 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2019

A quiet weather day was observed across the region with temperatures 
climbing into the 70s across much of the area, with the exception of 
along the Lake Superior shoreline where temperatures remained in the 
60s. Satellite trends show a swath of smoke from wildfires up north 
in Canada slowly sagging southward across parts of the area. 
Otherwise, skies were mostly clear across much of the area making 
for a beautiful day!

The northerly flow that has brought a cooler, drier airmass to 
the region is also helping to advect smoke from wildfires north of 
Minnesota in Canada. The majority of the more-dense smoke has 
remained confided to northern Minnesota, but certainly have 
observed subtle visibility restrictions at times on webcams across 
the Keweenaw Peninsula this afternoon. Through the rest of the 
afternoon/evening, expect this smoke to continue to settle across 
the Keweenaw and north half of Upper Michigan. No impacts are 
expected, but the smoke could make for a nice sunset in spots! 
Otherwise, tonight will be a chilly night as winds become light and 
strong radiational cooling develops. Overnight lows are expected to 
drop into the low to mid 40s inland from the Great Lakes, and closer 
to around 50s near the shorelines of the Great Lakes. 

Sunday will be another beautiful day as high pressure starts to move 
overhead. Skies will remain clear with light, lake-driven winds. 
Ample mixing should allow for another dry day, with RHs in the 25 to 
35% range, driest out west. Depending on how smoke evolves off of 
the Canadian wildfires tonight/tomorrow and where the main axis 
of smoke sets up, we could see more smoke advect in again tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 449 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2019

Models suggest that a progressive pattern will gradually give way to 
a zonal pattern toward the end of next week as a ridge builds into 
the sw and central CONUS. Temps will climb during the early portion 
of the week and then drop back below normal with the passage of a 
vigorous shrtwv and associated sfc low. 

Sunday night into Monday, dry weather will prevail as the sfc ridge 
gradually builds southeastward through the Great Lakes. After 
another cool night with favorable radiational cooling allowing temps 
to drop into the upper 50s and lower 50s, temps will rebound into 
the mid 80s. The gradient will remain weak enough to allow lake 
breezes to develop over the north even as southerly winds develop 
over the region.

Tue, although WAA and moisture advection will increase as southerly 
low level flow strengthens, the models have trended slower in 
bringing pcpn toward the region.

Wed-Thu, the shrtwv emerging from the nrn plains will be strong 
enough to support increasing pcpn into the northern Great Lakes from 
late Tuesday night into Wed evening. Instability should also be high 
enough to support sct tsra, especially by Wed afternoon. With PWAT 
values climbing above 1.5 inches, some brief locally heavy rain may 
be possible. Cooler weather with blustery north winds are expected 
Thursday behind the low with only a few leftover showers early. 

Fri-Sat, another shrtwv and sfc trough may move through the area by 
Friday bringing shra/tsra chances. Confidence in any details with 
the timing or strength of this feature is low with the 
relatively fast flow atop the developing ridge.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1229 AM EDT SUN JUL 7 2019

Under high pres and a dry air mass, VFR conditions will prevail thru 
this fcst period at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. Originating from wildfires in 
Canada, an elevated smoke layer, probably in the 5000-10000ft range, 
will be over the area at least into the morning hrs at KCMX/KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 344 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2019

Winds under 20 knots are expected to prevail through the rest of the 
weekend and into early parts of next week as high pressure moves 
overhead. Tuesday into Wednesday, high pressure pushes east of the 
region and the pressure gradient increases ahead of a developing low 
pressure system in the northern Plains. The increased pressure 
gradient will allow southerly winds to increases 20 to 25 knots 
Tuesday night into Wednesday. During the day on Wednesday, low 
pressure is progged to mover overhead, making winds more variable in 
direction. As the surface low pushes east Wednesday night and 
Thursday winds will become northerly with gusts up to 30 knots.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ritzman
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...Ritzman