774 
FXUS63 KMQT 061737
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
137 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 249 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2019

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the Gulf Coast 
with a trough in the western U.S. There is also a shortwave in WI 
early this morning which heads east. The upper pattern changes 
little through this forecast period. After some sprinkles dry up 
this morning over the western cwa, will be quiet and dry overall. 
Did not make too many changes to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 436 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2019

Continued dry weather through the first part of the week, with a 
shot at precip mid week and then again next weekend. Overall, the 
first part of this forecast period will bring comfortable dewpoints, 
with mostly sunny skies, and lighter winds. Slight central-CONUS 
ridging and associated area of high pressure across the Great Lakes 
will dominate through Monday evening. As high pressure continues 
east, a shortwave trough will impact the region Tuesday night into 
Wednesday. High pressure will return briefly, before another 
shortwave passes to the north on Friday evening.

On Sunday, high pressure will dominate the area providing light 
winds overall and plentiful sunshine. Although light winds will 
prevail, diabatic heating should still allow mixing through 800 mbs. 
Have lowered sfc dewpoints accordingly, but did not bite completely 
on dewpoints completely mixing out and went an overall blend between 
adiabatically mixing the dewpoints and deterministic outputs. A Lake 
Michigan lake breeze should develop early in the afternoon, limiting 
high temperatures along Lake Michigan, as light prevailing northerly 
winds limit temps along Lake Superior. Given the predominately light 
winds and clear skies, have favored slightly lower min temps across 
the CWA for Sunday and Monday night, especially in locally cooler 
locations. On Monday, highs should climb an additional 2-5 degrees 
compared to Sunday, otherwise expect very similar conditions 
throughout the CWA with the exception of the lake breeze. Given that 
the synoptic wind pattern will turn southerly, a Lake Superior lake 
breeze with develop in the early afternoon which will create locally 
cooler high temperatures near Lake Superior, although not as far 
inland as on Sunday.

As the area of high pressure continues east, return flow will bring 
dewpoints back to near 60, into the low 60s for some, on Tuesday. 
Precipitation should hold off on Tuesday with the exception of far 
western UP as precip will move in late in the afternoon and evening. 
As the shortwave reaches Lake Superior Tuesday night, rain and 
thunderstorms will develop and pass through the CWA. Given the model 
differences, have left PoPs at chance for now and for a longer 
duration. For now, models show an initial light wave of 
precipitation overnight into Wednesday, then a potentially more 
potent round on Wednesday afternoon. It is a bit too soon to narrow 
down QPF at this point, but the GFS does show the chance up to 2 
inches locally. Thankfully, the GEM and ECMWF show only 0.25 inches 
during this timeframe. Look for future updates on this shortwave.

Beyond Wednesday, a quick passing high pressure area will move 
through on Thursday behind the trough with clear skies and highs in 
the mid 70s. This appears to be short-lived as GFS/ECMWF/GEM 
continue to show the chance at another trough pushing through the 
Upper Great Lakes as a low pressure system passes through northern 
Ontario next weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 137 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2019

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours with 
lake-driven winds this afternoon becoming light and/or variable 
overnight. With a subtle shortwave tracking east, west-northwest 
flow has allowed smoke from Canadian wildfires to work into the 
region. Therefore, so have mentioned of smoke in the KCMX TAF, but 
do not expect any impacts as much of this fog (based on webcams) 
appears to be elevated.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 249 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2019

Under a weak pressure gradient, winds thru the entire forecast 
period will be 20kt or less.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JAW
AVIATION...Ritzman
MARINE...07