National Weather Service Raw Text Product

578 
FXUS63 KILX 051522
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1022 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1018 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

Going forecast on track this morning with the expectation for
increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms as we head into
the afternoon hours. Forcing still a bit nebulous across the
region, but main focus should be associated with a slow moving
MCV over central Missouri. Convergent axis is noted extending east
of this wave, draped from roughly Quincy through Champaign where 
a few showers/storms are already ongoing. Meanwhile, another area 
of convergence is noted emanating east from the MCV, moving across
the St Louis area and will shift across counties south of I-72 
through the afternoon hours where we expect the greatest coverage
of storms to occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

As has been the case for the past several days, very warm and
humid weather will be the rule today...with scattered afternoon
and evening thunderstorms. A short-wave trough evident on 07z/2am
water vapor imagery over northwest Arkansas will track E/NE into
Tennessee...enhancing synoptic lift and creating greater areal 
coverage of convection across southern Illinois into the Ohio 
River Valley later today. Most CAMs agree with this thinking, so 
have highlighted locations along/south of I-70 with likely PoPs
this afternoon. Further north away from the strongest forcing,
only widely scattered storms will develop along old outflow 
boundaries during peak heating...so have tapered PoPs down to just
30-40 along/north of I-72. Scattered storms will continue into the
evening, then will become more isolated overnight as instability
wanes. High temperatures today will top out in the upper 80s to
around 90 degrees, while lows tonight drop into the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

A short-wave trough ejecting out of the Northern Rockies into the
Upper Midwest will push a weakening cold front southward into 
Illinois on Saturday. While most models continue to show only 
scattered convection, think the presence of the boundary 
interacting with copious amounts of atmospheric moisture will be 
sufficient to warrant likely PoPs. The front will gradually drop 
to near the Ohio River and dissipate by Sunday as high pressure 
builds into the Great Lakes. As a result, think rain chances will 
decrease markedly early next week. With high so far to the north 
and boundary still in the vicinity, have opted to maintain low 
chance PoPs along/south of a Taylorville to Paris line on 
Sunday...then have gone with dry conditions across the board for 
Monday/Tuesday.

After that, a pronounced upper trough will dig across the Great
Lakes by the middle and end of next week as strong ridging builds
over the Rockies. As a result, a cold front is progged to push 
through Illinois on Wednesday...accompanied by a chance for 
thunderstorms. Once the front passes, cooler/drier weather will 
be on tap by Thursday with highs dropping into the lower to middle
80s. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

VFR conditions will continue next 24hrs at all TAF sites.
Scattered CU/SC this morning with some high clouds will continue
and then lower clouds will dissipate later this morning. More
CU expected to develop this afternoon along with thunderstorms, 
but unsure where they will develop given lack of a good boundary, 
so will have VCTS at all sites beginning at 18z and continuing
into the evening hours. Broken mid cigs then expected remainder of
the evening, followed by some light fog after midnight at all
sites. Winds will be southwest today below 10kts, but then become
light and variable this evening and overnight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Deubelbeiss
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten