829 
FXUS63 KMQT 050723
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
323 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2019

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb shortwave over the upper 
Great Lakes this morning which has topped the broad 500 mb ridge 
over the southern and eastern U.S. There is also a trough in the 
Canadian Prairies this morning and a trough in the western U.S. with 
a shortwave in the western high plains. The trough in the Canadian 
Prairies and the shortwave in the western high plains will move east 
and move through the upper Great Lakes tonight. Nam brings some 
deeper moisture this afternoon through tonight along with some 850-
500 mb q-vector convergence through the area with the deeper 
moisture across the southern half of the cwa. Not real impressed 
with pcpn chances for this afternoon across the southern cwa. Sfc 
front looks to be south of the area, but it will still be humid. 
Could see some lake breeze activity though across southern Menominee 
County and kept some slight chance pops there. Otherwise, did not 
make too many changes to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2019

The long-term period will start off with an immediate relief for 
everyone with reduced dewpoints. High pressure, currently over Yukon 
and the Northwest Territories, will slide southeast towards the 
Great Lakes region, reaching Upper Michigan on Saturday afternoon. 
The high pressure will keep the area dry through the weekend and 
early parts of next week. As the high pressure continues east, 
return flow looks to bring returning dewpoints to near 60 into the 
low 60s.

On Saturday, high pressure will continue to settle in across the 
Great Lakes leading to a quiet day with continued clearing skies 
through the day. Current model soundings on the NAM and GFS show 
mixing through 850-800 mbs, however with lighter winds aloft, should 
not expect too gusty of conditions. Did go with slightly lower 
dewpoints for Saturday afternoon on account for the mixing and drier 
airmass taking hold, overall should lead to min RHs in the low to 
mid 30s across western UP, and a chance at the upper 20s in the far 
eastern portions of the UP.

With continued high pressure, Sunday and Monday look dry and mostly 
sunny as well. Temperatures will slowly increase back into the low 
80s by Monday as the high pressure begins to slide east. Southerly 
return flow will take hold on Monday, bringing dewpoints to near 60 
again ahead of our next chance of mentionable precipitation. A low 
pressure system will develop on the leeside of the Canadian Rockies 
before making its way towards Lake Winnipeg. On Tuesday evening, 
this low pressure system will drop a trough to the south across the 
Northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes. Deterministic GFS model shows 
both the fastest and most aggressive, in terms of QPF, solution 
between the GFS/ECMWF/GEM. The ECMWF lags behind the GFS a time step 
or two with the GEM remaining close to the GFS, but with a weaker, 
more prolonged event. Taking the deterministic models as they stand, 
Upper Michigan looks to receive anywhere from 0.1 inch to 1.0 inch 
of rain. One issue that may end up playing a role in this event is 
the replacement of the drier air that settles into the area with the 
cold front and high pressure this weekend. Given the uncertainty 
amongst the models, have left the general blend in there for now, 
but continue to watch future runs for trends one way or another.

Beyond the passing trough on Wednesday, models differ on the speed 
and intensity of the passing wave and associated precipitation, so 
slight chances of rain remain into Thursday. This will likely get 
narrowed down as we get closer to the event. Otherwise, things begin 
to clear out for the remaining days in the week, with the GFS/GEM 
showing another upper-level wave bringing a shot at some more 
precipitation Friday night into Saturday, as the ECMWF shows this 
precipitation on Saturday night into Sunday. Something to keep our 
eyes on moving forward, as some rain would be appreciated for some 
after a drier June but otherwise expect pleasant weather to take 
over this weekend across Upper Michigan.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 105 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2019

Thunderstorms have exited the terminal areas, leaving behind a few 
lingering showers that will dissipate as the night wears on. In its 
wake, LL stratus/fog is quickly filling in, forcing a reduction in 
categories throughout the remainder of the overnight period. Shortly 
after daybreak, expect conditions to improve, with VFR taking back 
over by mid-morning. Light to calm winds dominate overnight, with N 
to NE winds picking up slightly during the day.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 321 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2019

Under a weak pressure gradient, winds thru the entire forecast 
period will be 20kt or less. Patchy to areas of fog could still 
linger across portions of Lake Superior, especially the e half. 
Until the cold front passes tonight, this fog will likely linger, 
moving around with the prevailing winds. Any lingering fog should 
clear out by late tonight as drier air moves in.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JAW
AVIATION...lg
MARINE...07