250 
FXUS63 KFGF 041905
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
205 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

Watching the upper level wave producing showers currently (19z) 
entering central North Dakota. Mid-level lapse rates will remain 
very weak across the region and the atmosphere stable with high 
pressure settling across the area. Given these factors, expect 
the showers to dissipate or be more virga as they enter eastern 
North Dakota this evening. 

Ridging will build into the region through the period. Anticipate
upper level waves to affect the region, but with steep mid-level
lapse rates and instability to the south majority of activity will
remain to the south. Any forcing that does affect this forecast
area will likely lead to only very light showers or virga type
activity. Temperatures will be near, or slightly below normal
values. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

Saturday-Sunday...Upper level ridging and surface high pressure 
along with a stable airmass will lead to minimal impacts. Temperatures
will be near, or slightly below normal values. 

Monday-Thursday...Active pattern returns as ridging is forced
eastward by an approaching upper level trough. Although there are
timing and detail differences among the ensembles and other
guidance, there is a stronger signal for severe storms in the
Monday/Tuesday timeframe (as indicated by the SPC day 5 outlook).
By mid-week, ridging builds across the southern CONUS placing the
northern tier of states within the storm track, and continued
active weather. Given this expected pattern, expect severe storm
potential every 2-3 days. Temperatures will be near normal values,
and slightly warmer and more humid on the days with severe storm
potential. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

KBJI to KFAR could see some brief periods of MVFR cumulus
development, but otherwise VFR conditions through the period.
Winds will be light. Showers or thunderstorms expected to be south
of the region. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...TG