417 
FXUS63 KFGF 041129
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
629 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue working across the 
region this morning, slowly pushing eastward into west-central 
Minnesota. Slight precipitation chances will continue for areas 
along the I-94 corridor south and east of Fargo along a theta-e 
gradient through much of the day. High temperatures will climb into 
the mid-70s in the Devils Lake Basin with mid-80s for the area near 
Fergus Falls.

Late afternoon into the evening hours: Slight rain and thunderstorm 
chances are in the forecast for areas south of Hwy 2 through the 
late afternoon and early evening. Severe thunderstorms are not 
expected; however, outdoor activities could briefly be impacted by 
transient thunderstorm activity that could produce frequent 
lightning and non-severe wind gusts. Isolated stronger storms are 
possible for areas south of Interstate 94. Temperatures will fall 
into the lower to middle 60s by sunset outside of the Red River 
Valley with middle 60s to lower 70s within the valley.

Friday brings quiet weather for portions of the region north of Hwy 
200 with a chance of thunderstorms for areas to the south. Highs 
will climb into the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

Friday night-Sunday: Transition takes place in large scale pattern 
with ridge beginning to deamplify into the Northern Plains. 
Embedded weaker shortwave troughs may ripple along the northern 
extent of this ridge, but guidance is showing a dry trend through 
these periods. There could still be low chances Friday evening-
Friday night mainly in the southern half of our area as a weak 
shortwave moves to the south and there could be some linger 
instability. Surface trough developing with southerly flow may allow 
for destabilization Sunday, but confidence is not high on forcing 
in our CWA during the daytime period. 

Sunday night-Thursday: Active pattern returns as ridge begins to 
flatten allowing for southwest flow Sun night and westerly flow 
returning during the later period. This sets the stage for a return 
to the active pattern, with increasing shower/thunderstorm chances 
primarily associated with progressive shortwave troughs riding 
across the Northern Plains. Timing of waves and details such as 
surface features/axis of instability and low level moisture return 
play a role in potential impacts, but just based on current extended 
guidance east day/evening period could have potential for severe 
(some impressive parameters some days if those are actually 
realized). 

Regarding temperatures: Air mass will initially be slower to recover 
despite rising heights Saturday (highs 70s most areas), with 
southerly flow eventually returning Sun and temps returning to 
near or just slightly below seasonal normals (near 80 to lower
80s).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

CIGs will be slow to recover for KBJI and KTVF this morning with
widespread cloud cover across the region. Light rain will continue
tapering off with partial clearing from northwest to southeast
through the midday and early afternoon hours. We could see
scattered showers and thunderstorms develop once more this
afternoon and evening, mainly south of KGFK. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lynch
LONG TERM...DJR
AVIATION...Lynch