583 
FXUS64 KBMX 030752
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
252 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0250 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2019/

Today and Tonight.

The area will be in between synoptic patterns today. Thanks to the 
upper low in Texas, the northern areas will be in an easterly flow. 
Meanwhile, high pressure to our south will provide a westerly flow 
to the southern counties. This is evident on IR this morning. In 
between these area, the flow will be minimal, so any storms, that 
develop across central sections of Central Alabama, may have very 
little movement. Overall, look for scattered showers and storms 
during the peak heating, with gusty winds, small hail, and heavy 
rain possible. Look for the activity to begin to dissipate once the 
sun sets, with most of the rain ending by midnight. Highs will be in 
the upper 80s to 90s. Lows will once again be in the mid 60s to low 
70s. 

16


.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0250 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2019/

Thursday through Wednesday.

Ridging remains in place across the region Thursday through 
Saturday. This will lead to continued scattered thunderstorm 
development in the afternoons each day. We could get some moisture 
convergence in East Alabama on Friday as a weak shortwave trough 
slides into the Carolinas, so I've increased PoPs Friday 
afternoon/evening to 50-60%. Heat indices have trended down by 1-2 
degrees, so we're not really looking at widespread heat advisory 
criteria Thursday through Saturday as previous forecasts had 
indicated. However, heat indices are still expected to be near or 
just above 100 degrees for a few hours each afternoon. However, 
given the holiday timing and numerous outdoor events, I'll continue 
mentioning heat impacts in the HWO. 

The center of the ridge shifts westward over Texas in response to an 
upper level trough sliding through the Ohio River Valley Saturday 
into Sunday. Guidance varies on how quickly the ridge builds back in 
after the trough passes to our north and east, so I'll cap afternoon 
PoPs at 30-40% for the first half of next week. 

25/Owen


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

VFR TAFs are expected generally through the morning, except for
maybe an hour or two of MVFR visibilities possible at TCL. We had
less convection on the radar yesterday. Rain chances are a little
better this afternoon with some upper level ripples rotating around
the Gulf of Mexico ridge from the west. I have TSRA chances 
mentioned for all but ASN/ANB as a result. Chances are lower 
there and will forgo a mention at this time. 

08


&&

.FIRE WEATHER... 

Warm weather continues through the end of the week. Minimum 
relative humidity values remain generally in the 40 to 50 percent 
range. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop by early 
afternoon and will persist into the evening each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     92  71  90  72  91 /  30  30  50  30  50 
Anniston    93  72  91  73  91 /  30  30  50  30  50 
Birmingham  93  73  91  74  93 /  40  30  50  30  40 
Tuscaloosa  93  73  92  75  95 /  60  30  40  20  30 
Calera      92  72  90  73  92 /  40  30  50  30  30 
Auburn      95  73  91  74  90 /  20  20  50  30  60 
Montgomery  95  74  94  76  94 /  40  30  50  30  40 
Troy        95  72  93  74  93 /  40  30  50  30  60 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None. 

&&

$$