861 
FXUS64 KAMA 292021
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
321 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tomorrow...

High pressure will continue to sit over New Mexico and 
southeastern Colorado through tomorrow with northeasterly flow 
over the Panhandles. Surface winds will remain southerly today 
with winds in the northwest Panhandles diminishing through the 
evening hours. Clear skies and low relative humidities will allow 
for a dry heat this afternoon with temperatures peaking near 100 
degree Fahrenheit. Light and variable winds tomorrow with clear 
skies will bring temperatures once again to the upper 90s. Winds 
will become southwesterly through the late afternoon hours with 
increasing wind speeds. Morning dewpoints Sunday will be in the 
50s across the eastern Panhandles with relative humidity values in
the 80s; however, the environment will quickly dry out by the 
afternoon as temperatures rise. The chance for precipitation will 
remain west of the Panhandles today and tomorrow behind the ridge,
as the flow aloft will not be conducive for any storms off the 
Rockies to move east into the Panhandles.

Rutt

&&

.LONG TERM...Tomorrow Night through Friday...

An elongated upper ridge will be centered over an AZ - E NE axis 
to begin the long term periods Sunday night. Weak surface trough 
across NE CO along with surface high over the eastern CONUS will 
lead to southeasterly winds at the surface Sunday night through 
Monday night. As Sunday night into Monday night progress, an 
inverted upper trough will slowly work east to west across TX/OK, 
allowing some Gulf moisture to eventually filter into the 
Panhandles and displacing the upper ridge to a Sonora - W NE axis.
The result will be slightly cooler conditions Sunday night 
through Monday night as oblique upslope surface flow prevails and 
mid level temperatures cool by a few degrees C. The increasing 
moisture from the Gulf along with a bit of moisture seen at 700mb 
from the eastern Pacific should allow for a slight chance for 
showers and storms across the western Panhandles Monday night. The
lack of any strong forcing mechanism precludes going with a 
stronger mention or including more of the Panhandles at this time.
As a result of the ridge to our west cutting us off from strong 
mid and upper level flow, progged hodographs are very short. 
Coupled with skinny CAPE profiles, severe concerns are minimal. 
Weak overall flow would lead to a localized heavy rain threat with
any storms that do manage to develop.

Moisture slowly increases through midweek as the inverted trough 
stalls out and largely rejoins the dominant westerly pattern 
across the CONUS. Shear, CAPE profiles, and storm motions look to 
remain weak through Independence Day as well. While forcing will 
once again be lacking, the amount of moisture available along with
hot afternoon temperatures does continue to support a mention of 
showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours. With 
the greater moisture - modeled PWATS are above 1.25" - comes an 
increased chance for localized heavy rain with any storms.

By Thursday, the upper ridge slowly flattens out with some 
marginally stronger mid and upper level flow over the northwestern
Panhandles as a result. Thus, could have the best shot at strong 
to marginally severe storms through entire period Thursday 
afternoon/evening. Locally heavy rainfall will remain the main 
concern, however.

Ferguson

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFs...

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at all three 
sites. South southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph with clear skies.

Rutt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                67  95  64  92  65 /   0   0   0   0  10 
Beaver OK                  68  96  66  94  67 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Boise City OK              65  97  63  92  62 /   0   0   0   5  20 
Borger TX                  69  98  66  95  67 /   0   0   0   0  10 
Boys Ranch TX              67  98  64  95  66 /   0   0   0   0  10 
Canyon TX                  65  95  63  94  64 /   0   0   0   0  10 
Clarendon TX               68  93  66  91  67 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Dalhart TX                 63  97  62  92  62 /   0   0   0   5  20 
Guymon OK                  66  98  64  94  64 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Hereford TX                63  96  64  94  64 /   0   0   0   0  10 
Lipscomb TX                69  94  67  93  68 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Pampa TX                   67  92  64  92  66 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Shamrock TX                69  93  67  92  68 /   0   0   0   0   5 
Wellington TX              70  94  68  93  69 /   0   0   0   0   5 

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

23/77